MLB · resolved market
Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7e0829bb0c3d0b6ee6a4e3f1fc25b110b176cf5ea51c367dcc1d4b23315afc64
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Washington Nationalsof Washington Nationals, Houston Astros
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,076
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,833
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,076 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8a26…937ebacked Washington Nationals | 40c | 6,262$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,761.65 | 613 | 51.5%316 W · 297 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Houston Astros | 60c | 3,210$1,926 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,925.7 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Houston Astros | 60c | 1,714$1,028 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,028.4 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed Washington Nationals | 40c | 1,228$491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$736.67 | 1,213 | 40.5%491 W · 722 L | -32.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Houston Astros | 60c | 1,219$731 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$731.27 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Houston Astros | 60c | 472$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.92 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Houston Astros | 61c | 471.5$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.33 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Houston Astros | 60c | 444.13$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.48 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Houston Astros | 17c | 324.03$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.21 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc6d…31cebacked Houston Astros | 14c | 285.71$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 139 | 46.8%65 W · 74 L | +12.8wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Houston Astros | 60c | 120.77$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.67 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25c1…7e8ebacked Houston Astros | 62c | 105.1$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.16 | 196 | 54.1%106 W · 90 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Washington Nationals | 40c | 105$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.36 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…a9f2backed Washington Nationals | 40c | 93.86$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.56 | 468 | 54.5%255 W · 213 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Houston Astros | 60c | 87$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.2 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Washington Nationals | 39c | 87$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.07 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Washington Nationals | 38c | 86.84$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.84 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e43…0306backed Houston Astros | 34c | 75$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 234 | 35%82 W · 152 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28f7…404dbacked Washington Nationals | 40c | 62.5$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 476 | 46.2%220 W · 256 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a3…d760backed Washington Nationals | 40c | 42.5$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 244 | 44.7%109 W · 135 L | +7.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Washington Nationals | 64c | 37.86$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48b9…abe2backed Washington Nationals | 39c | 30.77$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.77 | 348 | 43.4%151 W · 197 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Houston Astros | 61c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Houston Astros | 44c | 24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Houston Astros | 62c | 16.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)this page
- Houston Astros vs. Washington NationalsWashington Nationals won
- Houston Astros vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 11.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 12.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 7.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-5.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-6.5)Houston Astros won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Houston Astros vs. Washington NationalsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.