TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Houston Astros vs. Washington Nationals

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Washington Nationalsof Houston Astros, Washington Nationals
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$567,724
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$581,740

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $567,724 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 228 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5e94…5ba1backed Houston Astros45c200,000$90,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89,999.9446949%230 W · 239 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e77…8c33backed Washington Nationals55c138,205$76,013 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62,192.3828350.9%144 W · 139 L-0.6wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3dfb…abafbacked Washington Nationals56c88,888$49,777 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39,110.71,38549.5%685 W · 700 L-4.9wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Houston Astros41c66,385$27,313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27,313.4210,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2dc1…b33cbacked Washington Nationals59c48,780$28,780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,00026056.9%148 W · 112 L+4.1wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc3c3…eec8backed Houston Astros27c30,000$7,950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,95048952.8%258 W · 231 L+16.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+2.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4f1a…bc89backed Washington Nationals55c18,182$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,181.813551.4%18 W · 17 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Washington Nationals56c13,888$7,777 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,110.51,66050.1%832 W · 828 L-22.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde49…fe85backed Houston Astros46c12,000$5,520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,52048451%247 W · 237 L-10.8wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc365…2e53backed Houston Astros44c10,426$4,544 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,544.021,60753.2%855 W · 752 L+74.2wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Washington Nationals55c9,851$5,428 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,422.411,51551.1%774 W · 741 L+7.5wins0.00per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x4309…7456backed Houston Astros0c7,500$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153336.4%12 W · 21 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-24.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed Houston Astros44c6,568$2,890 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,889.993,45351.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L+58.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc0df…5974backed Washington Nationals56c6,300$3,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,799.8422257.2%127 W · 95 L+8.1wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b44…3992backed Washington Nationals59c6,098$3,598 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,50015659%92 W · 64 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Houston Astros44c5,873$2,584 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,584.134,47848.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L-47.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5482…b6eebacked Houston Astros0c5,387$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.428762.9%25 W · 851 L+5.5wins+0.01per pick2cpaid+19.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc26c…dcedbacked Washington Nationals57c5,111$2,913 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,197.963100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+94.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9621…0a73backed Washington Nationals56c5,089$2,850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,239.2918658.6%109 W · 77 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5674…2ff4backed Washington Nationals59c4,878$2,878 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,00012759.8%76 W · 51 L+5.8wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+8.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9f15…bdb3backed Washington Nationals54c4,811$2,598 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,212.9277647.4%368 W · 408 L+1.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a26…937ebacked Washington Nationals55c4,545$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,045.4561351.5%316 W · 297 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb01…7dfbbacked Houston Astros0c4,500$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2017417.2%30 W · 144 L+5.8wins+0.03per pick14cpaid+14.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x41b4…10dabacked Houston Astros45c4,468$2,011 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,010.619950.3%100 W · 99 L+6.7wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Washington Nationals59c4,413$2,618 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,795.1511,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0467…fb2ebacked Houston Astros45c4,006$1,803 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,802.846747.8%32 W · 35 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Houston Astros44c3,803$1,685 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,684.746,89950.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L-7.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4861…3aaebacked Washington Nationals59c3,659$2,159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,50012759.1%75 W · 52 L+4.8wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+7.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x21b7…c861backed Houston Astros43c3,500$1,505 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50514938.3%57 W · 92 L-5.7wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-11.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0eb5…d57abacked Houston Astros43c2,995$1,288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,287.8921644.9%97 W · 119 L+0.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec37…85bdbacked Houston Astros46c2,850$1,311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3119831.6%31 W · 67 L-13.1wins-0.13per pick45cpaid-33.7%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x300b…f636backed Washington Nationals55c2,727$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,227.2723357.9%135 W · 98 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked Houston Astros44c2,226$981 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$980.592,29152.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L+24.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x815f…1eefbacked Houston Astros42c2,093$879 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$879.1691252.4%478 W · 434 L+12.5wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Washington Nationals55c2,032$1,113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$919.565,40150.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L+17.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4658…4131backed Washington Nationals54c1,852$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$851.8549158.9%289 W · 202 L+30.8wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+12.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe922…39b3backed Washington Nationals55c1,800$990 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81020455.9%114 W · 90 L+0.5wins0.00per pick56cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x519d…37a1backed Houston Astros1c1,800$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125852.1%12 W · 573 L-1.7wins0.00per pick2cpaid-45.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x09af…9728backed Washington Nationals56c1,786$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$785.7189153.5%477 W · 414 L+24.2wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Washington Nationals60c1,757$1,058 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$699.368,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x835c…a5eebacked Washington Nationals56c1,700$952 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7482147.6%10 W · 11 L-1.6wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-13.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf7c4…5919backed Houston Astros2c1,677$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$381,1807.2%85 W · 1,095 L-13.6wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-37.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea39…9d34backed Washington Nationals55c1,547$850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$696.7413453%71 W · 63 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x191f…4a8dbacked Houston Astros44c1,541$678 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$678.046844.1%30 W · 38 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-8.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2cd6…3806backed Washington Nationals59c1,462$863 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$599.4217752.5%93 W · 84 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Houston Astros44c1,273$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$560.121,52148.6%739 W · 782 L-5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a8c…ba13backed Washington Nationals60c1,217$730 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$486.6715851.9%82 W · 76 L-12.5wins-0.08per pick60cpaid-10.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Houston Astros36c1,203$428 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$427.912,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5505…aa44backed Houston Astros44c1,187$527 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$526.751545.2%233 W · 282 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x42ab…0d2dbacked Washington Nationals55c1,091$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$490.9111255.4%62 W · 50 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f29…7a7ebacked Washington Nationals58c1,051$609 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$441.682,96948.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L-5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-11.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5400…8a89backed Houston Astros2c1,026$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21681.5%1 W · 67 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick3cpaid-81.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa0f2…1848backed Houston Astros44c1,001$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$440.4479442.4%337 W · 457 L-13.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-18%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Houston Astros44c1,000$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4401,79643.8%786 W · 1,010 L-33.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x58b9…ee8bbacked Washington Nationals54c999.98$540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$459.9975248.8%367 W · 385 L-1.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Houston Astros44c953.62$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$419.592,29051%1,167 W · 1,123 L+23.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7be0…ca40backed Washington Nationals56c902.59$505 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$397.148775.9%66 W · 21 L+9.7wins+0.11per pick65cpaid+18.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xabb8…bba3backed Washington Nationals56c892.86$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$392.8698149.9%490 W · 491 L-17.6wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd52…aa25backed Washington Nationals56c892.86$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$392.8628152%146 W · 135 L-5.1wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-2.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe055…3157backed Houston Astros46c869.57$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4002755.6%15 W · 12 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xebc0…5806backed Washington Nationals67c840.36$563 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$277.323066.7%20 W · 10 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9ec2…bd08backed Houston Astros44c816$359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$359.041,13742.6%484 W · 653 L+10.0wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Houston Astros25c786.73$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.895045.2%429 W · 521 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-22.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2002…a75ebacked Houston Astros41c760.98$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$314.5515751.6%81 W · 76 L+6.5wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x417f…d9a9backed Washington Nationals60c721.13$432 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$288.83475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick57cpaid+29.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x63ec…3b76backed Houston Astros45c666.67$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30010750.5%54 W · 53 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b62…5cc8backed Houston Astros40c625$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2502065%13 W · 7 L+1.6wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+12.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3050…1a35backed Washington Nationals55c610.67$339 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$272.17154.9%39 W · 32 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick56cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Washington Nationals54c592$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$272.321,40248.8%684 W · 718 L-11.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe292…84b8backed Houston Astros44c590$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.51,40243.1%604 W · 798 L+4.7wins0.00per pick43cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Houston Astros23c587$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.0140043%172 W · 228 L-4.9wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-12.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb92…b221backed Houston Astros44c567.98$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.9137944.3%168 W · 211 L-17.1wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-8.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe22a…cb75backed Washington Nationals56c540$302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$237.626948.7%131 W · 138 L-9.2wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4a3f…4333backed Washington Nationals57c534.85$305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$229.9956253.2%299 W · 263 L+13.2wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x36b3…e421backed Houston Astros44c503.41$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.540341.4%167 W · 236 L-20.0wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-13.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Houston Astros44c500$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2201,45642.7%622 W · 834 L-39.7wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-24.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdc9f…905bbacked Houston Astros25c500$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12536729.4%108 W · 259 L+5.6wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb6e0…ff0fbacked Houston Astros44c500$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22030647.4%145 W · 161 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xfb0c…8c72backed Washington Nationals55c499.99$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2251,20653.7%648 W · 558 L+29.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xce00…7d1dbacked Washington Nationals56c446.43$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.4317952.5%94 W · 85 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa689…15fcbacked Houston Astros44c444.69$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.6624346.9%114 W · 129 L-1.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x985c…e5d2backed Washington Nationals55c418.18$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.1854455.1%300 W · 244 L+13.9wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8e5c…2ba2backed Houston Astros6c416.67$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253762.2%23 W · 14 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-14.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5811…0976backed Houston Astros45c390$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.881,55548.9%761 W · 794 L+1.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb8e…08c1backed Houston Astros22c360$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.9494655.3%523 W · 423 L+31.5wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-0.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x842c…6674backed Washington Nationals56c357.14$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.141070%7 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.11per pick59cpaid+18.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xba62…3e29backed Washington Nationals56c357.14$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.1422149.3%109 W · 112 L-5.9wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-2.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc86…7e77backed Houston Astros26c332.01$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.969447.6%330 W · 364 L-9.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x56ac…d77ebacked Washington Nationals55c306.6$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.9771650.7%363 W · 353 L+9.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b8d…bb92backed Washington Nationals56c300$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13258652.7%309 W · 277 L+14.7wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xce6d…28b5backed Houston Astros45c299.99$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.991,48350.2%745 W · 738 L+5.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ba2…d212backed Houston Astros26c288.11$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.3492046%423 W · 497 L-11.7wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xffae…adaebacked Houston Astros45c287.23$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.2558943.1%254 W · 335 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcda3…36cfbacked Houston Astros45c280$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.61,31043.6%571 W · 739 L+13.2wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5231…4907backed Washington Nationals55c272.73$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.734459.1%26 W · 18 L+3.2wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+15%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2bfa…8b61backed Washington Nationals56c269.48$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.4818356.8%104 W · 79 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x898c…b48fbacked Washington Nationals60c250$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x58d5…8898backed Houston Astros44c250$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.21,20543%518 W · 687 L+4.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a49…651abacked Washington Nationals55c249.99$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.523052.6%121 W · 109 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Houston Astros37c239.79$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.853,45751.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L+108.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.