MLB · resolved market
Houston Astros vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x06f8686a7ac5a7e41f9e63bb27127d9fc554b843a9d305cce2a263686d49dbe3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $246,176
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $252,549
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $246,176 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x547f…2937backed Under | 56c | 206,051$114,896 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91,155.25 | 138 | 56.5%78 W · 60 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Over | 44c | 100,000$44,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44,000 | 856 | 45.3%388 W · 468 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 44c | 68,762$30,580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30,580.39 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 57c | 10,099$5,774 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,324.78 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Over | 45c | 8,788$3,911 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,910.66 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Over | 61c | 7,246$4,429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,428.87 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Under | 39c | 5,498$2,170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,327.88 | 272 | 54.4%148 W · 124 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 44c | 5,315$2,338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,337.96 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 64c | 5,273$3,359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,914.14 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 44c | 4,350$1,935 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,935.45 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 45c | 3,743$1,684 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,684.21 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 45c | 3,053$1,374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,374 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 45c | 2,500$1,120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,120 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Over | 60c | 2,071$1,243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,242.6 | 912 | 52.4%478 W · 434 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 44c | 2,044$899 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$899.45 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 44c | 1,510$672 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$672.02 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3740…a935backed Under | 71c | 1,500$1,065 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$435 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bff…fc26backed Under | 54c | 1,442$779 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$663.55 | 436 | 47%205 W · 231 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Over | 45c | 1,193$537 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$536.84 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 44c | 1,084$481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480.55 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0844…f46abacked Over | 44c | 1,000$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440 | 168 | 48.2%81 W · 87 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 44c | 855$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.89 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Over | 45c | 651$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.9 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Over | 45c | 585$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.25 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Over | 33c | 500$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 457 | 48.6%222 W · 235 L | -11.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Over | 44c | 306$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.64 | 403 | 41.4%167 W · 236 L | -20.0wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Over | 46c | 226.1$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.22 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff19…3ebebacked Over | 46c | 219.2$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.87 | 404 | 47.8%193 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Over | 46c | 199.4$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.72 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 43c | 166.41$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.79 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e43…0306backed Over | 31c | 152.76$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.16 | 234 | 35%82 W · 152 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 44c | 150.02$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae34…3a8abacked Under | 67c | 149$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.17 | 356 | 68.8%245 W · 111 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0009…5497backed Over | 60c | 145.2$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.12 | 295 | 49.8%147 W · 148 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Under | 45c | 142.73$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.06 | 1,043 | 49%511 W · 532 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed3…274cbacked Under | 69c | 141.55$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.23 | 586 | 49.5%290 W · 296 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Under | 48c | 131$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.65 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc6d…31cebacked Over | 31c | 129.03$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 139 | 46.8%65 W · 74 L | +12.8wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbe88…67a8backed Under | 69c | 124.03$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.45 | 970 | 50.7%492 W · 478 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 45c | 123$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.35 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 46c | 113.63$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.27 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc72…cd13backed Over | 37c | 113$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.81 | 344 | 43.9%151 W · 193 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90a7…5ac0backed Over | 31c | 107.64$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.24 | 267 | 47.9%128 W · 139 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Under | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 48c | 86.5$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.62 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff68…8379backed Over | 51c | 72.57$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.2 | 269 | 40.5%109 W · 160 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Under | 69c | 72.46$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 1,195 | 50%597 W · 598 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbf…49c1backed Over | 44c | 67$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.48 | 183 | 47%86 W · 97 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe14a…62bebacked Over | 46c | 61$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.06 | 151 | 45.7%69 W · 82 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Over | 29c | 60.68$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.36 | 374 | 44.4%166 W · 208 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf655…7f1abacked Over | 44c | 60$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 412 | 36.7%151 W · 261 L | -16.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Over | 45c | 60$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 390 | 53.6%209 W · 181 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Over | 46c | 54.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 652 | 48.3%315 W · 337 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…abe3backed Over | 46c | 53.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.61 | 351 | 49.3%173 W · 178 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc29f…dc4ebacked Over | 46c | 51.33$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.61 | 85 | 45.9%39 W · 46 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Under | 58c | 50.49$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.29 | 694 | 47.6%330 W · 364 L | -9.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 42c | 49.22$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.79 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bef…5f5dbacked Under | 30c | 47.39$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.34 | 101 | 54.5%55 W · 46 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc1…53babacked Over | 46c | 46.96$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -4.8wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 65c | 43.8$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.52 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe246…dedcbacked Under | 69c | 43.48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 267 | 53.9%144 W · 123 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0098…71e0backed Over | 46c | 41.07$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 152 | 52%79 W · 73 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 55c | 36.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.34 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…30b1backed Under | 58c | 35.76$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 434 | 59%256 W · 178 L | +19.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0297…e67fbacked Under | 72c | 27.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.82 | 50 | 66%33 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x409d…8f47backed Under | 55c | 27.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 110 | 50.9%56 W · 54 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Under | 55c | 26.47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.91 | 979 | 44.4%435 W · 544 L | -22.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed Over | 46c | 25.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 1,038 | 51.7%537 W · 501 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a62…5247backed Over | 46c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 140 | 47.9%67 W · 73 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 58c | 18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Houston Astros vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5this page
- Houston Astros vs. Washington NationalsWashington Nationals won
- Houston Astros vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 11.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 12.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 7.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-5.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-6.5)Houston Astros won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Houston Astros vs. Washington NationalsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.