TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Houston Astros vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$382,002
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$385,260

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $382,002 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 140 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4bff…fc26backed Under47c258,801$121,896 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121,895.9343647%205 W · 231 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee00…cea1backed Over53c100,000$53,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47,00035854.5%195 W · 163 L+7.3wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Over53c77,168$40,896 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36,272.7811,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Under46c21,739$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,0001,04349%511 W · 532 L+3.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Over54c19,767$10,603 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,163.911,57248.3%759 W · 813 L-6.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f3e…bcf8backed Over53c18,888$10,011 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,877.366264.5%40 W · 22 L+8.8wins+0.14per pick50cpaid+28%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x9a4c…1f30backed Over50c18,000$8,957 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,042.928943.8%39 W · 50 L-5.5wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-10.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Over48c12,766$6,126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,639.6910,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x39d3…9ef0backed Under46c12,200$5,612 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,61223538.3%90 W · 145 L-8.5wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-11.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xde49…fe85backed Under53c12,000$6,349 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,348.8648451%247 W · 237 L-10.8wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Over53c9,921$5,283 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,638.014,47848.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L-47.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked Over54c6,880$3,681 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,198.81,90953.5%1,021 W · 888 L+29.1wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Over53c6,200$3,278 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,922.044,55349.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L-9.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Over59c5,745$3,417 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,328.218,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Over53c5,195$2,759 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,436.26,89950.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L-7.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over56c5,000$2,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,20044749.2%220 W · 227 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x78b0…9f1abacked Over55c4,545$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,045.4539047.4%185 W · 205 L-11.5wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Over53c4,500$2,374 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,125.735,40150.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L+17.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a32…0086backed Over54c4,000$2,160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,839.9927254.4%148 W · 124 L+12.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+9.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Over53c3,904$2,069 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,834.642,29051%1,167 W · 1,123 L+23.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f15…bdb3backed Under51c3,885$1,981 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,981.2577647.4%368 W · 408 L+1.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4658…4131backed Over53c3,774$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,773.5849158.9%289 W · 202 L+30.8wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+12.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Under44c2,964$1,307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,306.866,11655.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L+344.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x50c3…ace1backed Over49c2,958$1,435 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,522.9686653%459 W · 407 L+16.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked Under46c2,817$1,296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,295.6921748.4%105 W · 112 L-5.7wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-5.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3b5…941abacked Over53c2,700$1,431 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,268.9923758.6%139 W · 98 L+16.9wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+14.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Over53c2,609$1,381 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,227.231,28449.5%635 W · 649 L-1.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x56ac…d77ebacked Over51c2,474$1,262 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,212.2671650.7%363 W · 353 L+9.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed Over53c2,303$1,218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,084.543,45351.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L+58.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xedf0…a1d3backed Under46c2,213$1,018 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,018.132227.3%6 W · 16 L-3.1wins-0.14per pick41cpaid-32.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xeef6…cd4cbacked Under47c2,072$974 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$973.8455653.4%297 W · 259 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5505…aa44backed Under48c2,056$983 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$982.9851545.2%233 W · 282 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed Over53c1,916$1,015 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$900.5292054%497 W · 423 L+23.1wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3cec…d241backed Over51c1,765$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$864.718256.1%46 W · 36 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd9ea…b781backed Over53c1,704$903 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$800.9856851.4%292 W · 276 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd60…396cbacked Under50c1,404$702 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$701.8219546.2%90 W · 105 L+0.3wins0.00per pick46cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over53c1,388$736 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$652.368,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked Under45c1,210$545 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$544.6899624.6%245 W · 751 L-70.1wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-24.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb1cb…2345backed Over53c1,210$641 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$568.76855.9%38 W · 30 L+4.8wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+12.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x93ac…2761backed Under47c1,145$539 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$539.242,58361.4%1,587 W · 996 L+70.9wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3d4…f59bbacked Over48c1,000$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5207352.1%38 W · 35 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over54c976.16$524 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$452.4212,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x348c…c8efbacked Under46c976$449 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$448.9610438.5%40 W · 64 L-7.7wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-2.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8328…e5ebbacked Under46c976$449 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$448.969339.8%37 W · 56 L-6.8wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-15.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5811…0976backed Over53c975$521 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$454.351,55548.9%761 W · 794 L+1.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x73e8…cd6fbacked Over53c944.34$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$443.8436048.6%175 W · 185 L-11.5wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Over53c883.75$468 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$415.412,29649.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L+37.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8bfd…fb46backed Under46c743.83$342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$342.1640%0 W · 4 L-1.9wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x9b11…5375backed Under47c715.24$336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$335.551,77749.5%880 W · 897 L+25.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7dc6…4b55backed Over51c588.24$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$288.249062.2%56 W · 34 L+7.7wins+0.09per pick54cpaid+15.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under48c579.54$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.682,80049.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L+0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbe88…67a8backed Over51c571.82$292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$280.1997050.7%492 W · 478 L+13.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbf9c…3648backed Under47c548.28$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.691,73349%849 W · 884 L+6.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8ce7…3150backed Over53c530.15$281 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$249.1715447.4%73 W · 81 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Over39c455.97$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$278.711,79643.8%786 W · 1,010 L-33.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x46f8…68ccbacked Over53c440$232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.2645045.8%206 W · 244 L-10.9wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Over72c391.48$282 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.619,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x702e…ff44backed Under49c373.72$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.1226444.3%117 W · 147 L-7.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-5.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6553…7a71backed Over50c348$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17461450.8%312 W · 302 L+9.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa804…2a75backed Under49c341.53$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.3529147.1%137 W · 154 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xae34…3a8abacked Under65c307.99$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.7735668.8%245 W · 111 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick68cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x56cc…d589backed Over54c253.08$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.151,24556.9%708 W · 537 L+31.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x85c3…700cbacked Over39c241.35$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.6390446.9%424 W · 480 L+13.1wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc365…2e53backed Over46c219.01$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.141,60753.2%855 W · 752 L+74.2wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2ed3…274cbacked Under46c217.39$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10058649.5%290 W · 296 L+0.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf593…9553backed Under51c201.11$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.492,94547.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L+3.8wins0.00per pick47cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1fcd…724dbacked Over54c200$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9210249%50 W · 52 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c9a…c65dbacked Over54c196.3$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.32360.9%14 W · 9 L+1.5wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+14.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdb25…eb12backed Over50c192.14$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.0757548%276 W · 299 L-17.0wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-7.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x52a0…ec9dbacked Over53c188.68$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.6838252.1%199 W · 183 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8351…9bebbacked Over54c185.19$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.1965248.3%315 W · 337 L+1.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdaf6…1a9bbacked Under49c183.44$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.892050%10 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x6717…d6ebbacked Over55c181.82$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.8237256.5%210 W · 162 L+1.8wins0.00per pick56cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x57cc…0fa7backed Under51c178$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.7822448.7%109 W · 115 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6986…3369backed Over50c150.68$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.3424547.3%116 W · 129 L-9.8wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-8.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Over41c132.53$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.1970737.6%266 W · 441 L+24.5wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+15.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1405…9882backed Over50c132.44$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.228547.1%40 W · 45 L-4.1wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-11.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4060…e63cbacked Over43c116.4$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.423651.3%121 W · 115 L+5.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Over67c114.71$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.055,78643.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L-192.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0009…5497backed Over55c113.56$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.129549.8%147 W · 148 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+10.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x083c…65f2backed Over53c112$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.641861.1%11 W · 7 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+15.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7e50…4b22backed Under47c100$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$477755.8%43 W · 34 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x051d…1992backed Over48c100$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$521844.4%8 W · 10 L+1.7wins+0.09per pick35cpaid+5.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9696…2bc3backed Under48c100$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4854146.8%253 W · 288 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca2b…3489backed Under50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5029242.5%124 W · 168 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick43cpaid0%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb07…e2ccbacked Under50c99.99$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5016753.9%90 W · 77 L+10.2wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+12.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1bef…5f5dbacked Over68c99.4$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.7710154.5%55 W · 46 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb2e…7821backed Over53c98.18$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.7573849.3%364 W · 374 L+0.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x815f…1eefbacked Over55c97.26$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.7791252.4%478 W · 434 L+12.5wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc72…cd13backed Over43c97$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.2934443.9%151 W · 193 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe935…3991backed Over53c94$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.1810042%42 W · 58 L-6.0wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-19.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc846…c413backed Under49c94$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.0653950.6%273 W · 266 L+16.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc4f…9804backed Over53c90$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.4439053.6%209 W · 181 L+12.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+7.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Under59c89.42$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.754,16950.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L+92.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x04ec…8ac9backed Under50c89$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.568846.8%322 W · 366 L+9.1wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd8ef…f7a1backed Over54c80.36$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.974944.9%22 W · 27 L-2.9wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-15.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5c85…9634backed Over48c78.58$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.8711956.3%67 W · 52 L+8.0wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+18.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x747f…f2d7backed Under51c74.9$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.217047.1%80 W · 90 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3404…10d2backed Over54c70$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.5552852.1%275 W · 253 L+13.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9cb4…8285backed Under51c65.5$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.4141346.7%193 W · 220 L-10.3wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.