Commodities · resolved market
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $104 on May 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7e18507447398bac4d650b46fa0c8a9f187a3d17263c3b1e43cd9041a7db6934
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,390
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,014
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,390 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Yes | 26c | 4,818$1,242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,241.93 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c46…d64dbacked No | 59c | 3,982$2,354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,628 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +4.1wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1966…25c0backed Yes | 35c | 3,300$1,149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,149 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.5wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x41f3…844ebacked No | 69c | 2,400$1,666 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$734 | 307 | 38.8%119 W · 188 L | +20.1wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x05dd…e2afbacked Yes | 56c | 850$476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$476 | 141 | 43.3%61 W · 80 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb4…0464backed Yes | 5c | 590.2$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.92 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c5f…ca75backed Yes | 6c | 276.37$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4388…5050backed No | 64c | 225$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.22 | 177 | 52%92 W · 85 L | +20.4wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x395d…7313backed Yes | 20c | 150$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa774…005fbacked No | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c2…0c32backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc93c…3c93backed Yes | 12c | 99.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $104 on May 15?this page
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $100 on May 15?Yes won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $101 on May 15?Yes won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $102 on May 15?No won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $103 on May 15?No won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $105 on May 15?No won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $95 on May 15?Yes won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $96 on May 15?Yes won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $97 on May 15?Yes won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $98 on May 15?Yes won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $99 on May 15?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.