Commodities · resolved market
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $100 on May 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2f109906cb4bfe82821ebfce489113e323b8dd511ae120446129968cc2fc4d32
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,599
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,431
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,599 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Yes | 57c | 3,734$2,128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,605.6 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked No | 40c | 1,580$629 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$629.5 | 302 | 38.1%115 W · 187 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -13%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa540…0b43backed No | 61c | 1,280$781 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$780.92 | 1,277 | 24.3%310 W · 967 L | -58.2wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c46…d64dbacked No | 23c | 1,259$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.35 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +4.1wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3764…c5ebbacked No | 40c | 1,188$474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$474.17 | 294 | 36.1%106 W · 188 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0bc8…adf7backed No | 49c | 853.65$421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420.72 | 84 | 59.5%50 W · 34 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x547c…0844backed Yes | 33c | 565.52$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.13 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa901…d418backed Yes | 48c | 508$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.08 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +4.0wins | +0.19per pick | 43cpaid | +59.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 40c | 500$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.27 | 938 | 40.2%377 W · 561 L | -69.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x41f3…844ebacked No | 50c | 430.52$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217 | 307 | 38.8%119 W · 188 L | +20.1wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…b236backed Yes | 48c | 413.99$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.29 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +118.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2651…3471backed Yes | 70c | 400$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122 | 304 | 43.4%132 W · 172 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbada…d874backed Yes | 26c | 336.12$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.71 | 150 | 56%84 W · 66 L | +19.8wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x05dd…e2afbacked Yes | 52c | 299$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.51 | 141 | 43.3%61 W · 80 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a63…5c31backed Yes | 78c | 256.76$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.76 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6289…cd99backed Yes | 79c | 250.71$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.36 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4867…a6f8backed Yes | 75c | 202.66$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.66 | 97 | 58.8%57 W · 40 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69fd…b2f0backed No | 52c | 200$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d10…3bddbacked Yes | 26c | 188$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.12 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x702c…b1e6backed Yes | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +4.6wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa774…005fbacked No | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa719…0f74backed Yes | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +84.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x045c…5861backed Yes | 59c | 86.99$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.07 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d4c…34a1backed Yes | 75c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 57 | 59.6%34 W · 23 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7aa7…afb4backed Yes | 27c | 50.4$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.8 | 32 | 71.9%23 W · 9 L | +4.6wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x417b…18d3backed No | 47c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.41 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4388…5050backed Yes | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 177 | 52%92 W · 85 L | +20.4wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes | 77c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.78 | 162 | 76.5%124 W · 38 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 73cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58a8…52febacked Yes | 50c | 23.52$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -60%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 65c | 21.31$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 28 | 78.6%22 W · 6 L | +4.0wins | +0.14per pick | 64cpaid | +27%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked No | 50c | 21.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $100 on May 15?this page
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $101 on May 15?Yes won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $102 on May 15?No won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $103 on May 15?No won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $104 on May 15?No won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $105 on May 15?No won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $95 on May 15?Yes won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $96 on May 15?Yes won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $97 on May 15?Yes won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $98 on May 15?Yes won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $99 on May 15?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.