Commodities · resolved market
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $102 on May 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x779507ecb428133098961a7280edd5a1415838d5a6cea8b8f82389fce7a8b696
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $107,879
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $100,618
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $107,879 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbada…d874backed Yes | 0c | 25,481$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.62 | 150 | 56%84 W · 66 L | +19.8wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8c46…d64dbacked No | 41c | 13,815$5,667 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,148.37 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +4.1wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x888c…ec00backed Yes | 65c | 11,609$7,506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,506.07 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Yes | 59c | 6,092$3,589 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,589.28 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab51…2473backed No | 34c | 5,251$1,789 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,462.02 | 94 | 22.3%21 W · 73 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d10…3bddbacked Yes | 49c | 4,949$2,444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,443.85 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c5f…ca75backed Yes | 38c | 3,706$1,411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,410.6 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3764…c5ebbacked Yes | 9c | 2,853$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.91 | 294 | 36.1%106 W · 188 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e68…826bbacked Yes | 55c | 2,807$1,552 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,551.85 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7151…4404backed Yes | 62c | 2,757$1,709 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,708.83 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf60e…936dbacked Yes | 35c | 2,696$952 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$952.11 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41f3…844ebacked No | 44c | 2,562$1,132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,430.69 | 307 | 38.8%119 W · 188 L | +20.1wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…b236backed Yes | 48c | 2,289$1,090 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,089.69 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +118.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked No | 61c | 1,949$1,187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$762.51 | 302 | 38.1%115 W · 187 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -13%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x389a…397dbacked No | 55c | 1,612$891 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$721.13 | 100 | 51%51 W · 49 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 63c | 1,331$834 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$497.32 | 938 | 40.2%377 W · 561 L | -69.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa719…0f74backed No | 29c | 1,166$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$823.35 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +84.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x05dd…e2afbacked No | 52c | 878.42$454 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$424.39 | 141 | 43.3%61 W · 80 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4388…5050backed No | 34c | 854$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$561.08 | 177 | 52%92 W · 85 L | +20.4wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x241f…e15abacked No | 58c | 758.61$441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.28 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd13c…02f4backed Yes | 16c | 735.71$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.7 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 9c | 669$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.21 | 1,030 | 9.2%95 W · 935 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfe2…8c49backed Yes | 30c | 656.73$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 67 | 61.2%41 W · 26 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d4a…4256backed No | 79c | 584.77$463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.39 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa540…0b43backed Yes | 14c | 432.9$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.29 | 1,277 | 24.3%310 W · 967 L | -58.2wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ac…990dbacked No | 38c | 420$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.22 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06ce…0b8bbacked Yes | 27c | 379.39$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.15 | 88 | 44.3%39 W · 49 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd51d…1578backed No | 27c | 329.87$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked Yes | 4c | 305.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 40c | 275.28$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.12 | 185 | 40.5%75 W · 110 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2651…3471backed Yes | 51c | 241.93$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.87 | 304 | 43.4%132 W · 172 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 49c | 203.86$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.01 | 30 | 80%24 W · 6 L | +6.7wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb920…1b19backed Yes | 45c | 186$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.88 | 161 | 37.9%61 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +12%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5011…220ebacked No | 66c | 148.1$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.79 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x045c…5861backed No | 56c | 133.33$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.5 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef4…be5dbacked Yes | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.9wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x510b…da8dbacked No | 34c | 110$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.05 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x395d…7313backed Yes | 11c | 108.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa774…005fbacked No | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa276…2613backed No | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 53cpaid | +93.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…13e5backed Yes | 66c | 99.99$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.99 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -6.6wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8824…d492backed Yes | 23c | 72.49$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 48c | 58.46$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.94 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x547c…0844backed Yes | 31c | 50.42$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.67 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15fb…252dbacked Yes | 67c | 44$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.48 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34b0…3c56backed Yes | 31c | 41.68$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +3.7wins | +0.18per pick | 20cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7aa7…afb4backed No | 68c | 40.38$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.04 | 32 | 71.9%23 W · 9 L | +4.6wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked No | 59c | 34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.92 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +4.0wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8d4c…34a1backed Yes | 75c | 26.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 57 | 59.6%34 W · 23 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35a4…7b85backed No | 59c | 23.22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.57 | 53 | 64.2%34 W · 19 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $102 on May 15?this page
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $100 on May 15?Yes won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $101 on May 15?Yes won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $103 on May 15?No won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $104 on May 15?No won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $105 on May 15?No won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $95 on May 15?Yes won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $96 on May 15?Yes won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $97 on May 15?Yes won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $98 on May 15?Yes won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $99 on May 15?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.