Commodities · resolved market
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $101 on May 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbb468feaf44da3ec02d2b9bb5958dc230de2a65445466bb35a7d4e02e3a2d72a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,777
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,750
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,777 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Yes | 49c | 7,108$3,487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,621.05 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked No | 52c | 3,084$1,604 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,603.97 | 302 | 38.1%115 W · 187 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -13%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c46…d64dbacked No | 37c | 2,602$960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$959.9 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +4.1wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x41f3…844ebacked No | 56c | 2,197$1,234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,233.58 | 304 | 38.8%118 W · 186 L | +20.0wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3764…c5ebbacked No | 54c | 1,850$1,003 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,003.48 | 292 | 36.3%106 W · 186 L | +16.3wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +25%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d10…3bddbacked Yes | 55c | 1,579$862 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$717.2 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x389a…397dbacked No | 54c | 1,522$820 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$820 | 100 | 51%51 W · 49 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 50c | 1,391$695 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$695.35 | 930 | 40.3%375 W · 555 L | -67.5wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…b236backed Yes | 46c | 1,228$568 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$659.71 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +118.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bc8…adf7backed No | 50c | 1,114$559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$559.22 | 84 | 59.5%50 W · 34 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa540…0b43backed No | 64c | 1,067$688 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$687.61 | 1,265 | 24.5%310 W · 955 L | -56.9wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05dd…e2afbacked No | 50c | 1,028$513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$513.32 | 141 | 43.3%61 W · 80 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbada…d874backed Yes | 24c | 962.06$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$732.77 | 150 | 56%84 W · 66 L | +19.8wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa74d…734cbacked Yes | 52c | 770$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c13…3c34backed Yes | 65c | 769.23$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.23 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb920…1b19backed Yes | 43c | 624.65$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.15 | 161 | 37.9%61 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +12%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x264c…bacabacked No | 41c | 508$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.2 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x547c…0844backed Yes | 51c | 504.05$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.58 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ac…990dbacked Yes | 54c | 420$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.4 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2651…3471backed Yes | 42c | 324.16$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.65 | 303 | 43.2%131 W · 172 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510b…da8dbacked Yes | 52c | 310$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.1 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfe2…8c49backed Yes | 65c | 307.54$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.54 | 67 | 61.2%41 W · 26 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4388…5050backed No | 27c | 302.56$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.67 | 177 | 52%92 W · 85 L | +20.4wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x69fd…b2f0backed No | 43c | 200$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd51d…1578backed No | 40c | 200$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x045c…5861backed Yes | 56c | 172.01$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.9 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06ce…0b8bbacked Yes | 35c | 148.63$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.09 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dfd…d4fdbacked Yes | 75c | 133.03$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c5f…ca75backed Yes | 52c | 126$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.84 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…13e5backed Yes | 61c | 110$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.9 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -6.6wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xab51…2473backed No | 40c | 103.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.09 | 94 | 22.3%21 W · 73 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa774…005fbacked No | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x725b…27e8backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfd4…fe7bbacked Yes | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x417b…18d3backed No | 45c | 99.98$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.37 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa53b…4021backed No | 37c | 93.31$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.52 | 294 | 47.3%139 W · 155 L | +34.3wins | +0.12per pick | 36cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x241f…e15abacked Yes | 50c | 80$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 55c | 76.96$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.3 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked Yes | 24c | 71.07$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.95 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8824…d492backed Yes | 75c | 66.84$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.84 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 46c | 58.72$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.83 | 40 | 72.5%29 W · 11 L | +5.2wins | +0.13per pick | 59cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8d4c…34a1backed Yes | 59c | 51.11$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.11 | 57 | 59.6%34 W · 23 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 39c | 50.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.57 | 1,024 | 9.1%93 W · 931 L | -25.7wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes | 74c | 46$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.81 | 162 | 76.5%124 W · 38 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 73cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a63…5c31backed Yes | 62c | 32.39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.39 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd67b…bdb5backed No | 51c | 31.41$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19e5…04f0backed No | 46c | 26.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +82%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a4d…0b8fbacked Yes | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x025d…3f0cbacked Yes | 64c | 18.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.47 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.16per pick | 72cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $101 on May 15?this page
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $100 on May 15?Yes won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $102 on May 15?No won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $103 on May 15?No won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $104 on May 15?No won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $105 on May 15?No won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $95 on May 15?Yes won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $96 on May 15?Yes won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $97 on May 15?Yes won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $98 on May 15?Yes won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $99 on May 15?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.