Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7e25fa4ffd567ec4e39d42dd243f0cbe2dc4a71a1e639f79dbe1d6066078bcf3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,121
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,953
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,121 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3134…746abacked Yes | 1c | 1,330$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 36c | 250.31$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.03 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8023…cfd4backed No | 80c | 245.59$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.74 | 73 | 38.4%28 W · 45 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 31c | 177.26$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.8 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 20c | 171.32$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.87 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 67c | 159.28$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.89 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 23c | 148.96$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.6 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae42…9235backed Yes | 20c | 137.28$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -4.0wins | -0.25per pick | 56cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 20c | 132.76$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.13 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 76c | 125.63$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.55 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 27c | 121.75$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.09 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 67c | 112.01$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.5 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc62d…5577backed Yes | 32c | 90$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 250 | 38%95 W · 155 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 68c | 84.41$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.01 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 33c | 69$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.08 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 60c | 65.6$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.3 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 60c | 60$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.74 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…f1f5backed Yes | 33c | 59.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 244 | 34.4%84 W · 160 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82e7…f552backed Yes | 33c | 59.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 354 | 41%145 W · 209 L | -19.3wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x458e…8034backed Yes | 36c | 55.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 35c | 54$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.82 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 33c | 52.03$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.41 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 54c | 50.42$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.21 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 34c | 50.09$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.04 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed Yes | 47c | 49.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.31 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 54c | 49.38$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.75 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb545…589cbacked No | 78c | 46$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.94 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 69cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 41c | 45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 26c | 40.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed No | 52c | 36$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.28 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed Yes | 46c | 35.69$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 38c | 33.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.94 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 43c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.01 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 45c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b18…2639backed Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 438 | 42%184 W · 254 L | -14.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 36c | 29.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 73c | 29.32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad0d…8f33backed No | 66c | 29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 121 | 74.4%90 W · 31 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked No | 66c | 28.28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.58 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc72…ad49backed Yes | 73c | 27.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 115 | 65.2%75 W · 40 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 69c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 45c | 24.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b95…898abacked No | 61c | 24.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 301 | 68.8%207 W · 94 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 70c | 21.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.42 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 72c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 481 | 49.5%238 W · 243 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f81…7ce2backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 64c | 19.85$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb062…ed14backed No | 67c | 17.96$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 60c | 17.52$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.01 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 74c | 16.26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.26 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be 81°F or below on June 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 7?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.