Northern Colorado Bears vs. Montana State Bobcats

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7e3aac3d88a7640116ca1aa856a41efaac80491e74f41e7c7e5ad6871b94aa36

Rebuilt 12 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Montana State Bobcatsof Northern Colorado Bears, Montana State Bobcats
Resolved: Jan 2, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $22,870
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $24,800

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,870 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x507e…beaebacked Montana State Bobcats	75c	2,423$1,808 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$614.88	5,946	49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L	+163.0wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Montana State Bobcats	72c	1,765$1,275 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$489.66	4,848	52.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L	+139.2wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Montana State Bobcats	76c	1,394$1,060 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$334.58	3,905	58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L	+165.3wins	+0.04per pick	55cpaid	+4.5%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Northern Colorado Bears	27c	1,227$328 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$327.74	5,553	47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L	+26.3wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Northern Colorado Bears	9c	1,029$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90.27	2,048	32.7%670 W · 1,378 L	-16.2wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	-9.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b90…2194backed Northern Colorado Bears	42c	703.21$295 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$295.35	48	45.8%22 W · 26 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1733…1e15backed Northern Colorado Bears	42c	686$288 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$288.12	1,231	47%578 W · 653 L	-17.6wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Montana State Bobcats	58c	651.98$378 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$273.83	1,391	44.1%613 W · 778 L	-10.6wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked Northern Colorado Bears	41c	599.98$249 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$248.99	2,687	48.5%1,303 W · 1,384 L	+4.8wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x20ae…f107backed Northern Colorado Bears	28c	571.1$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160	423	27.2%115 W · 308 L	-10.9wins	-0.03per pick	30cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x17b9…430dbacked Northern Colorado Bears	38c	528.32$201 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200.71	13	46.2%6 W · 7 L	+1.9wins	+0.14per pick	32cpaid	+31.3%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Northern Colorado Bears	24c	494.7$118 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$118.49	1,910	49.6%947 W · 963 L	+30.4wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeca1…fc2ebacked Montana State Bobcats	58c	462.07$268 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$194.07	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.4wins	+0.42per pick	58cpaid	+72.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Northern Colorado Bears	23c	371.59$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86.89	490	43.1%211 W · 279 L	-3.9wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Montana State Bobcats	59c	322.36$189 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$133.69	2,579	47.3%1,221 W · 1,358 L	-42.7wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Northern Colorado Bears	21c	272.99$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.11	1,951	45.1%880 W · 1,071 L	-19.9wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-16.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7f7…2abfbacked Northern Colorado Bears	42c	257.36$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108.09	529	28.4%150 W · 379 L	-9.2wins	-0.02per pick	30cpaid	-10.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa965…3565backed Montana State Bobcats	52c	250$130 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$120	497	46.5%231 W · 266 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1f19…f012backed Northern Colorado Bears	41c	244.1$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	46	52.2%24 W · 22 L	-3.6wins	-0.08per pick	60cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Northern Colorado Bears	23c	243.71$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.29	3,684	42.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L	+32.6wins	+0.01per pick	42cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9cf7…e5a5backed Northern Colorado Bears	44c	229.17$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	126	42.1%53 W · 73 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	41cpaid	+2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f92…498fbacked Northern Colorado Bears	24c	207.41$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.41	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+0.8wins	+0.20per pick	55cpaid	+15.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Montana State Bobcats	73c	166.8$121 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$45.33	1,985	64.1%1,273 W · 712 L	+144.2wins	+0.07per pick	57cpaid	+7.3%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Montana State Bobcats	56c	148.79$83 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$65.47	12,422	49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L	+118.8wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe6cd…e027backed Northern Colorado Bears	40c	138.07$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.8	115	42.6%49 W · 66 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	42cpaid	-6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc0d…8bcabacked Northern Colorado Bears	31c	127.68$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	51	33.3%17 W · 34 L	+2.6wins	+0.05per pick	28cpaid	+6.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x89f3…dfffbacked Montana State Bobcats	60c	124.87$75 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50.11	1,173	25.2%296 W · 877 L	-43.0wins	-0.04per pick	29cpaid	-21.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Northern Colorado Bears	16c	124.68$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.42	4,382	40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L	+23.7wins	+0.01per pick	40cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb171…7d2bbacked Northern Colorado Bears	42c	117.5$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.35	95	54.7%52 W · 43 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	55cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Montana State Bobcats	52c	117$61 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$56.16	1,487	43%639 W · 848 L	+50.8wins	+0.03per pick	40cpaid	+11.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xce0a…2d88backed Montana State Bobcats	64c	107.94$69 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$38.94	75	57.3%43 W · 32 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	56cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a56…387cbacked Northern Colorado Bears	27c	103.45$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.61	323	43%139 W · 184 L	-18.5wins	-0.06per pick	49cpaid	-23%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x24d8…e8a8backed Montana State Bobcats	69c	82.53$57 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.56	123	54.5%67 W · 56 L	+3.4wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe92e…1e38backed Montana State Bobcats	73c	80.8$59 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.8	32	56.3%18 W · 14 L	-2.9wins	-0.09per pick	65cpaid	-13.8%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Montana State Bobcats	65c	76$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.6	1,074	47%505 W · 569 L	+1.3wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Northern Colorado Bears	42c	68$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.56	378	35.7%135 W · 243 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	36cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb13d…2e90backed Northern Colorado Bears	29c	61$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.69	556	57.4%319 W · 237 L	+20.3wins	+0.04per pick	54cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x255f…dad2backed Northern Colorado Bears	43c	57.61$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-1.5wins	-0.50per pick	50cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xee35…11ecbacked Northern Colorado Bears	35c	56.35$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	12	33.3%4 W · 8 L	-1.5wins	-0.13per pick	46cpaid	-31.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb8bd…56b6backed Northern Colorado Bears	23c	51.52$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.85	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.04per pick	29cpaid	-44.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Northern Colorado Bears	40c	50$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	1,667	36.4%607 W · 1,060 L	-4.0wins	0.00per pick	37cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Northern Colorado Bears	24c	49.01$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.69	94	12.8%12 W · 82 L	-3.5wins	-0.04per pick	17cpaid	-44.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa848…68fcbacked Northern Colorado Bears	41c	48.26$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	26	46.2%12 W · 14 L	-3.1wins	-0.12per pick	58cpaid	-31.6%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd0b4…9dc2backed Northern Colorado Bears	44c	45.45$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	43	34.9%15 W · 28 L	-2.1wins	-0.05per pick	40cpaid	-13.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9b89…99e2backed Northern Colorado Bears	25c	42.36$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.76	213	42.3%90 W · 123 L	-6.8wins	-0.03per pick	45cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xafe7…8b77backed Northern Colorado Bears	42c	35.4$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.87	65	58.5%38 W · 27 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	57cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf702…7cc8backed Northern Colorado Bears	44c	31.82$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	175	44%77 W · 98 L	-13.5wins	-0.08per pick	52cpaid	-25.4%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x34fa…f491backed Northern Colorado Bears	42c	30$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.6	1,070	46.9%502 W · 568 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x70db…05c8backed Montana State Bobcats	76c	29.97$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.29	12	50%6 W · 6 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-9.4%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x8684…57bdbacked Montana State Bobcats	66c	21.74$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.39	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+0.6wins	+0.32per pick	68cpaid	+47.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1b51…7292backed Montana State Bobcats	72c	18$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.04	20	80%16 W · 4 L	+2.1wins	+0.11per pick	69cpaid	+15.4%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x056b…491cbacked Montana State Bobcats	78c	16.28$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3.58	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-1.3wins	-0.26per pick	66cpaid	-42.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Northern Colorado Bears vs. Montana State Bobcats

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market