Movies · resolved market
Will "His & Hers" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? (February 10)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7e5f7d576f49c41d88394f660f7683e797d36edd76903e6281dd64c1fdd53e8a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,143
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,953
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,143 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x48a9…5fc8backed Yes | 9c | 15,844$1,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,400.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 1,686$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.06 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 80c | 888.98$707 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.24 | 482 | 36.3%175 W · 307 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb12e…8c6cbacked No | 78c | 600$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97c2…55d6backed No | 78c | 600$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 3c | 398.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 170 | 10%17 W · 153 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c7d…d6ebbacked No | 80c | 294.07$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.81 | 331 | 23.9%79 W · 252 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -15%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 6c | 289.19$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 47 | 6.4%3 W · 44 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 9c | 262.01$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.66 | 278 | 1.8%5 W · 273 L | -9.2wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1861…0743backed Yes | 16c | 210.53$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9097…b5d1backed Yes | 18c | 159.63$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7255…3175backed Yes | 23c | 139.26$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8da7…eafbbacked No | 77c | 139.26$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 9c | 129.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 484 | 14%68 W · 416 L | -39.3wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xce31…19c4backed Yes | 18c | 63.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c26…7a7abacked Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e49…4328backed No | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…c0f4backed No | 80c | 13.48$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "His & Hers" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? (February 10)this page
- Will "Alone" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? (February 10)No won
- Will "Bridgerton: Season 4" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? (February 10)No won
- Will "Is It Cake? Valentines" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? (February 10)No won
- Will "Mike Epps: Delusional" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? (February 10)No won
- Will "Mo Gilligan: In the Moment" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? (February 10)No won
- Will "Sullivan's Crossing" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? (February 10)No won
- Will "The Lincoln Lawyer: Season 4" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? (February 10)Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.