TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will "The Lincoln Lawyer: Season 4" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? (February 10)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$21,309
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$23,055

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,309 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf66c…4ab1backed No1c1,638$18 inLost-$17.69440%0 W · 44 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No3c593.5$20 inLost-$20.321,3948%111 W · 1,283 L-47.9wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed Yes73c404.86$297 inWon+$108.2948236.3%175 W · 307 L+8.4wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-9.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b1a…4221backed No7c352.37$25 inLost-$24.863721.6%8 W · 29 L-5.7wins-0.15per pick37cpaid-69.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xef04…d06ebacked No18c239.66$43 inLost-$43.38333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick16cpaid+138.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe401…883abacked No15c195.35$29 inLost-$29.5250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick22cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1584…71b6backed No13c186$23 inLost-$23.441546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-12.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No34c175.61$60 inLost-$60.351,21817.8%217 W · 1,001 L-124.0wins-0.10per pick28cpaid-50.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xf946…d542backed Yes63c156.23$98 inWon+$58.263850%19 W · 19 L+4.1wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+0.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf0e7…51acbacked Yes79c135.16$107 inWon+$28.19250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-36.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe5e8…76a1backed Yes78c104.46$82 inWon+$22.525151%26 W · 25 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No15c99$14 inLost-$14.4548414%68 W · 416 L-39.3wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-43.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8975…ffe6backed Yes79c93.33$73 inWon+$19.8520668.9%142 W · 64 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick70cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf244…beddbacked Yes56c89.87$50 inWon+$39.873461.8%21 W · 13 L+4.8wins+0.14per pick48cpaid+9.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No32c88.7$29 inLost-$28.6987033.3%290 W · 580 L-77.0wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-37.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xdf08…cf97backed No23c81.57$19 inLost-$18.666619.7%13 W · 53 L-14.5wins-0.22per pick42cpaid-65%equal weight32-0.16 edge/pick
0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes50c80$40 inWon+$40.3410537.1%39 W · 66 L+6.0wins+0.06per pick31cpaid+6.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfaac…175bbacked Yes49c63.78$31 inWon+$32.312560%15 W · 10 L+3.0wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+20.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x401e…6fc9backed Yes78c61$47 inWon+$13.6317540%70 W · 105 L-0.9wins0.00per pick40cpaid-24.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No28c46.22$13 inLost-$12.8920850%104 W · 104 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-11.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a67…0913backed No44c39.99$18 inLost-$17.66333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-39.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb798…7030backed Yes55c21.39$12 inWon+$9.6988.9%8 W · 1 L+1.7wins+0.19per pick69cpaid+31.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6c7d…d6ebbacked Yes59c20$12 inWon+$8.333123.9%79 W · 252 L+12.0wins+0.04per pick20cpaid-15%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x267e…54cdbacked Yes80c17.79$14 inWon+$3.561100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4dc2…0933backed Yes62c16.9$10 inWon+$6.441560%9 W · 6 L+2.0wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+24.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xce0e…4e9dbacked Yes69c14.51$10 inWon+$4.481100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.