TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will "Bridgerton: Season 4" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? (February 10)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$33,296
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$31,572

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,296 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6126…91cfbacked Yes0c10,000$10 inLost-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa5bf…8763backed Yes13c5,810$780 inLost-$780.16328.6%18 W · 45 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+7.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x28ca…5d19backed No78c2,249$1,760 inWon+$488.7919440.2%78 W · 116 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes5c1,386$66 inLost-$65.81,3948%111 W · 1,283 L-47.9wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xeb9d…e31bbacked Yes4c714.28$30 inLost-$303655.6%20 W · 16 L+3.7wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+32.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes11c468.1$50 inLost-$49.642119.5%20 W · 191 L-0.3wins0.00per pick10cpaid-49.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes8c392.9$31 inLost-$30.97476.4%3 W · 44 L-3.2wins-0.07per pick13cpaid-75.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdf95…694dbacked No79c364$289 inWon+$75.281850%9 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d4b…ca7abacked Yes15c266$40 inLost-$39.99745.4%44 W · 53 L+22.0wins+0.23per pick23cpaid+88%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0xaf33…7b7cbacked Yes8c256.66$20 inLost-$2050%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xbb50…7bfcbacked No76c241.6$183 inWon+$58.513337.6%50 W · 83 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-24.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa53e…f9f6backed Yes4c239.25$10 inLost-$10.13636.1%13 W · 23 L+0.1wins0.00per pick36cpaid-7.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes5c226.58$12 inLost-$12.3917010%17 W · 153 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-36.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5081…a309backed Yes10c178.4$18 inLost-$17.84614.9%3 W · 58 L-0.1wins0.00per pick5cpaid-31.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa912…297fbacked No74c147.44$110 inWon+$37.834148.8%20 W · 21 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-9.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x401e…6fc9backed No79c143.27$114 inWon+$29.6917540%70 W · 105 L-0.9wins0.00per pick40cpaid-24.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked No66c118$78 inWon+$39.923751.9%123 W · 114 L+16.9wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+6.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes10c100$10 inLost-$10746.8%5 W · 69 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick5cpaid-10%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes10c100$10 inLost-$102013.5%7 W · 194 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-47.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes10c100$10 inLost-$101164.3%5 W · 111 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-31.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes28c100$28 inLost-$28.191,21817.8%217 W · 1,001 L-124.0wins-0.10per pick28cpaid-50.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes28c50.72$14 inLost-$14.248414%68 W · 416 L-39.3wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-43.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.