Tennis · resolved market
ATP Toronto – Rublev vs. Sonego
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7e6c91f6504988d65d85e6610a346b47e980024a259b12627aee417f8e5af553
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Rublev of Rublev , Sonego
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $65,829
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $71,374
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $65,829 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4e94…6243backed Rublev | 64c | 10,968$7,071 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,896.17 | 178 | 33.1%59 W · 119 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Rublev | 51c | 9,606$4,909 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,697.79 | 391 | 44.2%173 W · 218 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed Sonego | 49c | 9,557$4,683 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,683 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Sonego | 41c | 4,317$1,750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,750.32 | 1,090 | 35.9%391 W · 699 L | +16.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96df…4caabacked Sonego | 42c | 4,043$1,697 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,697.08 | 260 | 39.2%102 W · 158 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fd9…544abacked Rublev | 62c | 4,032$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,532.26 | 201 | 55.7%112 W · 89 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…375cbacked Rublev | 69c | 3,487$2,406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,080.98 | 96 | 52.1%50 W · 46 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad94…85b1backed Sonego | 31c | 2,901$898 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$897.72 | 122 | 31.1%38 W · 84 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…5e75backed Sonego | 30c | 2,700$810 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$810 | 154 | 52.6%81 W · 73 L | +10.8wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Rublev | 70c | 2,340$1,638 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$701.99 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fae…3488backed Sonego | 33c | 2,071$680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$679.59 | 63 | 38.1%24 W · 39 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38c2…d3a7backed Rublev | 72c | 1,184$852 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.51 | 488 | 51.6%252 W · 236 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ba6…0f07backed Rublev | 69c | 1,030$711 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.3 | 669 | 49.6%332 W · 337 L | -11.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Rublev | 71c | 999.99$710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290 | 316 | 50%158 W · 158 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5555…d3d0backed Rublev | 59c | 984.8$585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.92 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c12…1937backed Sonego | 47c | 917$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77fb…849ebacked Sonego | 29c | 794.65$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.45 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf80b…fa00backed Rublev | 68c | 775.71$524 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.11 | 159 | 57.2%91 W · 68 L | +15.8wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa9…2491backed Sonego | 36c | 735.79$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.22 | 321 | 41.1%132 W · 189 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbaca…49e6backed Rublev | 71c | 704.23$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.23 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Rublev | 67c | 691.03$463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.04 | 951 | 40.1%381 W · 570 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0709…f2edbacked Rublev | 72c | 659.73$478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.79 | 84 | 53.6%45 W · 39 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca38…460bbacked Sonego | 31c | 600$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186 | 183 | 38.8%71 W · 112 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc398…f446backed Sonego | 25c | 564.8$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.2 | 960 | 35.4%340 W · 620 L | -40.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed Rublev | 68c | 500$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 296 | 36.8%109 W · 187 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x471c…b252backed Rublev | 67c | 468.43$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.24 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca8…3e59backed Rublev | 61c | 426.98$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.98 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45c3…42f9backed Rublev | 62c | 403.23$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.23 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Sonego | 31c | 322.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 639 | 42.4%271 W · 368 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Sonego | 34c | 306$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.05 | 1,107 | 42.8%474 W · 633 L | -20.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Sonego | 33c | 303.03$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 480 | 43.3%208 W · 272 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95de…42d5backed Rublev | 70c | 228.1$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.43 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.15per pick | 68cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…14a3backed Rublev | 72c | 223.16$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.16 | 383 | 56.9%218 W · 165 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4dbe…af34backed Sonego | 27c | 206.82$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.84 | 161 | 40.4%65 W · 96 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88c4…fbf0backed Sonego | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 204 | 31.4%64 W · 140 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97ae…82bdbacked Sonego | 32c | 200$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 220 | 21.8%48 W · 172 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf744…7392backed Rublev | 67c | 179.95$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.95 | 122 | 53.3%65 W · 57 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfcfe…d420backed Rublev | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 253 | 52.2%132 W · 121 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb478…ac0abacked Sonego | 32c | 156.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 360 | 47.2%170 W · 190 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd4…ce48backed Sonego | 28c | 150$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 97 | 42.3%41 W · 56 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f65…d7aebacked Rublev | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 65 | 35.4%23 W · 42 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8aea…c5f2backed Rublev | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Rublev | 72c | 138.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.89 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x731b…bdcabacked Rublev | 73c | 136.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.99 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Sonego | 34c | 136.24$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.66 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e17…e4d4backed Rublev | 74c | 107.8$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.26 | 159 | 61%97 W · 62 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0667…42e1backed Rublev | 54c | 104.5$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.07 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86e6…63d8backed Sonego | 28c | 99.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaece…c992backed Rublev | 68c | 66.67$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…f88dbacked Sonego | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb0d…786fbacked Rublev | 71c | 60$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbaa…59b8backed Sonego | 33c | 59.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 324 | 48.1%156 W · 168 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3ad…2582backed Rublev | 68c | 58.82$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.82 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb4c…1ca9backed Rublev | 41c | 57.1$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.69 | 153 | 63.4%97 W · 56 L | +11.5wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8330…b3b1backed Sonego | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 372 | 33.9%126 W · 246 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff9…e494backed Sonego | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 360 | 40%144 W · 216 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c59…b8e9backed Sonego | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -58%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74e6…99e8backed Rublev | 66c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 80 | 61.3%49 W · 31 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Rublev | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 2,335 | 46.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L | +55.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06c6…4162backed Rublev | 64c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaef9…3b47backed Rublev | 72c | 20.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7580…cb71backed Rublev | 73c | 15.97$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.31 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.