Fifa International · resolved market
Will Luxembourg win on 2026-03-31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7e864c7358ff3bcd08d65aff51c247d79bd450c2182b18f98915d1fda31bea87
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,607
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,510
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,607 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcd36…a8acbacked No | 17c | 9,739$1,646 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,646.23 | 52 | 28.8%15 W · 37 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8790…010bbacked Yes | 61c | 2,727$1,650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,077.12 | 62 | 37.1%23 W · 39 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd287…fe9ebacked No | 3c | 1,769$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 23c | 1,250$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.91 | 176 | 29%51 W · 125 L | -8.7wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaebf…e1cabacked Yes | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 175 | 44%77 W · 98 L | +9.8wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Yes | 77c | 895.78$688 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.53 | 508 | 50%254 W · 254 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Yes | 77c | 824.53$633 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.03 | 864 | 55.3%478 W · 386 L | +8.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked No | 8c | 731.15$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.53 | 141 | 32.6%46 W · 95 L | -8.9wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf60b…c18ebacked No | 42c | 630.27$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.09 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 23c | 590.49$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.18 | 163 | 41.1%67 W · 96 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Yes | 80c | 548.41$438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.91 | 1,001 | 53.9%540 W · 461 L | +34.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 78c | 412.4$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.74 | 450 | 39.6%178 W · 272 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43ce…c264backed Yes | 59c | 410.17$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.25 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed No | 49c | 244.59$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.47 | 237 | 49.8%118 W · 119 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…72ebbacked Yes | 76c | 229.17$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.95 | 72 | 66.7%48 W · 24 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x26dd…0249backed Yes | 78c | 216.16$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.56 | 255 | 54.5%139 W · 116 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed No | 49c | 210.94$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.03 | 246 | 53.3%131 W · 115 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88b1…3678backed No | 45c | 193.35$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.13 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…ac0cbacked No | 49c | 178.56$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.12 | 171 | 58.5%100 W · 71 L | +10.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed No | 24c | 159.86$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.7 | 161 | 16.8%27 W · 134 L | -16.9wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 23c | 152.03$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.03 | 2,327 | 18.1%422 W · 1,905 L | -363.0wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Yes | 78c | 147.87$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.53 | 3,731 | 51.8%1,931 W · 1,800 L | +55.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked No | 14c | 117.2$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 237 | 38.8%92 W · 145 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 56c | 102.41$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.31 | 550 | 45.1%248 W · 302 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed No | 48c | 100.06$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.29 | 414 | 51.4%213 W · 201 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 4,027 | 38.9%1,568 W · 2,459 L | -26.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 73c | 95.95$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.97 | 237 | 51.1%121 W · 116 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c30…d9e5backed Yes | 50c | 95.06$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.53 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa625…90cdbacked No | 12c | 94.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 32c | 84.93$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.52 | 277 | 45.1%125 W · 152 L | -19.7wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Yes | 63c | 75.6$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.8 | 459 | 47.7%219 W · 240 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed Yes | 59c | 66.13$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.11 | 363 | 49.3%179 W · 184 L | +15.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4bbe…95bfbacked Yes | 59c | 66.1$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c2f…99f9backed Yes | 75c | 65.67$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.42 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49ca…5944backed Yes | 77c | 63.7$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.38 | 79 | 54.4%43 W · 36 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Yes | 66c | 58.05$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.59 | 2,380 | 53.3%1,269 W · 1,111 L | +76.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8261…a4e7backed Yes | 75c | 52.53$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.13 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +66.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddae…fbd0backed Yes | 59c | 50.96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.71 | 29 | 72.4%21 W · 8 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9027…8174backed Yes | 58c | 45.03$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 47c | 40.41$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 109 | 54.1%59 W · 50 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 41c | 33.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 1,945 | 42.7%831 W · 1,114 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cf9…b4cabacked No | 42c | 30.84$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6be…b977backed Yes | 57c | 30.54$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.13 | 72 | 36.1%26 W · 46 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbefe…2d45backed Yes | 51c | 26.53$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 74 | 43.2%32 W · 42 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e73…3f4ebacked Yes | 70c | 25.93$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.69 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -3.6wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed No | 45c | 23.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 180 | 53.3%96 W · 84 L | -10.9wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -16%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57bd…1c8cbacked Yes | 59c | 23.15$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.49 | 56 | 64.3%36 W · 20 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x810d…6080backed Yes | 78c | 21.96$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.83 | 175 | 53.7%94 W · 81 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe02…5fb3backed Yes | 77c | 16.95$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.93 | 77 | 57.1%44 W · 33 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1030…dd7abacked Yes | 75c | 15.41$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.89 | 109 | 58.7%64 W · 45 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked Yes | 78c | 14.68$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.23 | 96 | 66.7%64 W · 32 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec6d…7b25backed Yes | 79c | 13.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.89 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Luxembourg win on 2026-03-31?this page
- Will Luxembourg vs. Malta end in a draw?No won
- Will Malta win on 2026-03-31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.