NFL · resolved market
NFL Sunday Week 8: Will an underdog win?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7e9ade1533eeb84bd9c91f33e4d7ea6fb80b7e4f86d33a7fd1fb0e9fa7c9cfa0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,878
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,873
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,878 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa41c…fadebacked No | 28c | 2,477$686 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$685.87 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa57…a128backed Yes | 72c | 1,390$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390.28 | 77 | 48.1%37 W · 40 L | -6.6wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5ddc…03c1backed No | 1c | 1,044$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed Yes | 76c | 973.42$738 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.2 | 212 | 27.8%59 W · 153 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x795d…63e7backed No | 24c | 900$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Yes | 66c | 700$462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238 | 196 | 38.8%76 W · 120 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf41d…8fe1backed Yes | 73c | 379.25$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc77…c035backed No | 23c | 296.58$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.36 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1eee…9ee9backed Yes | 71c | 213.26$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e1…ee5abacked Yes | 71c | 140.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.89 | 50 | 64%32 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17bd…7afcbacked Yes | 72c | 138.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.89 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe0b8…225dbacked Yes | 72c | 136.36$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe81…5fe9backed No | 30c | 117.86$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.36 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x420e…e3c9backed No | 28c | 110$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f19…b9ffbacked Yes | 65c | 95.65$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.48 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87b9…b193backed Yes | 72c | 83.33$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.33 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77e5…ec41backed Yes | 67c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc4…f44fbacked Yes | 70c | 57.86$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.36 | 266 | 48.9%130 W · 136 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed No | 30c | 50.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9682…738bbacked Yes | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b1f…4eebbacked Yes | 57c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 84 | 51.2%43 W · 41 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x154e…911fbacked No | 29c | 35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0102…32afbacked Yes | 74c | 33.78$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe014…8ebdbacked Yes | 71c | 28.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e3…6548backed Yes | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c49…7c10backed Yes | 72c | 21.79$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4319…ef66backed Yes | 79c | 16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ecc…1d30backed Yes | 73c | 15.42$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.22 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.