Movies · resolved market
Will "Melania" score at least 10 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7eaa3c1c9571acd8321e348fd6f76ca946a0992e10c78515dc1839b2e6a138ec
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,673
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,977
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,673 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa45c…1d10backed No | 69c | 7,663$5,262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,261.76 | 48 | 27.1%13 W · 35 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd86e…ee3ebacked Yes | 65c | 2,966$1,920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,045.92 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed Yes | 69c | 1,323$917 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405.94 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c9a…f183backed Yes | 18c | 901$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$738.82 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1214…ebecbacked Yes | 8c | 800$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$734 | 49 | 18.4%9 W · 40 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec70…e529backed Yes | 14c | 656.82$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$564.07 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +325.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca12…ea03backed Yes | 12c | 452.47$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$398.94 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +4.7wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +88.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe36c…a6f0backed Yes | 16c | 386$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.24 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 15c | 239.91$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.81 | 143 | 37.1%53 W · 90 L | -10.4wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7add…f9f4backed No | 10c | 234.56$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33fe…da25backed Yes | 18c | 216.24$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.11 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +165.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…26a7backed Yes | 11c | 215$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.25 | 134 | 40.3%54 W · 80 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6680…c738backed Yes | 58c | 166$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.97 | 105 | 44.8%47 W · 58 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed Yes | 36c | 153.34$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.54 | 167 | 41.9%70 W · 97 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…981ebacked Yes | 26c | 145$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.5 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +3.7wins | +0.17per pick | 30cpaid | +43.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…be4fbacked Yes | 41c | 135.05$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.34 | 48 | 8.3%4 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -54%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49d1…7b96backed Yes | 72c | 120$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a44…5e33backed Yes | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 45c | 97.01$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked Yes | 46c | 81.86$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.92 | 133 | 37.6%50 W · 83 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5e8…76a1backed Yes | 37c | 63$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.87 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4aae…d563backed Yes | 60c | 51.4$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.56 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xafb8…505cbacked Yes | 80c | 51$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b6c…0b29backed Yes | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf93…bdc8backed No | 80c | 45$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 59c | 42$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.28 | 237 | 51.9%123 W · 114 L | +16.9wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…cf97backed Yes | 29c | 35.68$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.24 | 66 | 19.7%13 W · 53 L | -14.5wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -65%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 52c | 27.05$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 164 | 53.7%88 W · 76 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f46…2cd1backed No | 68c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Melania" score at least 10 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?this page
- Will "Melania" score at least 15 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?No won
- Will "Melania" score at least 20 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?No won
- Will "Melania" score at least 25 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?No won
- Will "Melania" score at least 30 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?No won
- Will "Melania" score at least 5 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.