Tennis · resolved market
Set 1 Winner: Erhard vs Rodionov
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7eac35dc1c8b0917c0f754579e8475f67448ea41ee67e2c15c7ea16cea14eaf7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Erhardof Erhard, Rodionov
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,898
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,975
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,898 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Rodionov | 71c | 4,435$3,145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,145.12 | 8,828 | 36.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L | -193.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Erhard | 28c | 3,500$980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,519.98 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked Erhard | 29c | 785$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$557.35 | 1,031 | 50.3%519 W · 512 L | +40.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Erhard | 32c | 600$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Rodionov | 75c | 569.28$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426.96 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54d1…13f4backed Erhard | 27c | 185$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.05 | 737 | 48%354 W · 383 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf66e…14b7backed Rodionov | 80c | 170$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136 | 727 | 55.6%404 W · 323 L | +27.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Erhard | 25c | 160$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 3,220 | 40.5%1,305 W · 1,915 L | +28.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Rodionov | 70c | 158.9$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.23 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Erhard | 30c | 155.57$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.9 | 457 | 51%233 W · 224 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Erhard | 43c | 145.93$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.18 | 1,688 | 45.4%766 W · 922 L | -10.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0796backed Rodionov | 75c | 143$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.25 | 1,234 | 46.3%571 W · 663 L | +8.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9825…9ffcbacked Erhard | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 499 | 43.5%217 W · 282 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Erhard | 69c | 95.26$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.77 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb421…8856backed Erhard | 20c | 92$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.6 | 1,776 | 48.6%863 W · 913 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Rodionov | 63c | 89.19$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.19 | 3,677 | 54.8%2,015 W · 1,662 L | +107.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a8…b1f7backed Erhard | 37c | 89.19$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.19 | 287 | 38.3%110 W · 177 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02cd…cedcbacked Erhard | 31c | 48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.12 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 37cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc593…ea8cbacked Rodionov | 80c | 37$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 295 | 51.5%152 W · 143 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Erhard | 44c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 3,424 | 39.1%1,338 W · 2,086 L | -12.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9544…826ebacked Rodionov | 71c | 21.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 82 | 42.7%35 W · 47 L | -8.1wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc93d…23d5backed Rodionov | 67c | 19.85$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 247 | 48.6%120 W · 127 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set 1 Winner: Erhard vs Rodionovthis page
- Milan: Mathys Erhard vs Jurij RodionovMathys Erhard won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.