Valorant · resolved market
Map Handicap: XLG (-1.5) vs Trace Esports (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7ed0176915e5e99fa2de4db256f38bdfa80fcaa975359d245a7de121b07b706a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Trace Esportsof XLG Gaming, Trace Esports
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,156
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,735
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,156 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Valorant | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked XLG Gaming | 47c | 604.86$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.28 | 551 | 52.5%289 W · 262 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x537d…615bbacked Trace Esports | 53c | 388.71$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.79 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -3.0wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa5…ff32backed XLG Gaming | 46c | 300$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 208 | 40.9%85 W · 123 L | -12.7wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30c7…ac3bbacked Trace Esports | 55c | 287.57$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.18 | 289 | 55.7%161 W · 128 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3989…0539backed Trace Esports | 54c | 214.29$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.57 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +56.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33bb…a2cdbacked Trace Esports | 53c | 212.88$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.06 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb515…cd6bbacked Trace Esports | 53c | 144.85$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.08 | 91 | 48.4%44 W · 47 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51b6…1903backed XLG Gaming | 55c | 53.24$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.19 | 263 | 54.4%143 W · 120 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3050…bcf1backed XLG Gaming | 55c | 51.43$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.29 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 63cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd991…0133backed XLG Gaming | 55c | 35.38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.46 | 115 | 59.1%68 W · 47 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ce…8945backed XLG Gaming | 55c | 35.38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.46 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked XLG Gaming | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 121 | 59.5%72 W · 49 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a02…a770backed Trace Esports | 52c | 19.42$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.32 | 237 | 32.9%78 W · 159 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Map Handicap: XLG (-1.5) vs Trace Esports (+1.5)this page
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
- Valorant: Trace Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT China Group OmegaXLG Gaming won
- Valorant: Trace Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 1 WinnerTrace Esports won
- Valorant: Trace Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 WinnerXLG Gaming won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.