NHL · resolved market
Kings vs. Islanders: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7edc23ac830527983bbcf593b12694a5573058cffd8d7e3e64dd7fd03876705c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,222
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,222 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd6ce…7ec8backed Over | 38c | 2,694$1,035 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,035.09 | 623 | 46.9%292 W · 331 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c98…186dbacked Under | 61c | 1,637$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$637.1 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69ff…0d1dbacked Under | 47c | 1,000$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530 | 271 | 50.2%136 W · 135 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Over | 53c | 976.72$518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$517.74 | 1,107 | 52%576 W · 531 L | +63.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Under | 62c | 637.24$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.15 | 366 | 48.6%178 W · 188 L | -14.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 46c | 499.37$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.85 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 44c | 373.38$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.06 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd871…6bbabacked Over | 55c | 343.38$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.86 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Over | 51c | 324.62$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.7 | 413 | 40%165 W · 248 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc23…8283backed Under | 63c | 317.46$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.46 | 252 | 58.3%147 W · 105 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Over | 56c | 277$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.12 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 46c | 199.56$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 51c | 85.8$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.32 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 62c | 80.63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.64 | 786 | 51.8%407 W · 379 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Over | 52c | 64$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.54 | 314 | 48.7%153 W · 161 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Over | 49c | 63.97$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.6 | 295 | 53.6%158 W · 137 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Under | 62c | 61.9$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.52 | 355 | 53%188 W · 167 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Over | 49c | 61.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.2 | 272 | 50%136 W · 136 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 38c | 61.53$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.38 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Under | 62c | 56.45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.45 | 565 | 53.6%303 W · 262 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…1f45backed Over | 61c | 50.65$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.65 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd4c…394abacked Over | 41c | 48.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 81 | 46.9%38 W · 43 L | -6.0wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x88fc…74a4backed Under | 34c | 47.46$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.23 | 134 | 42.5%57 W · 77 L | -7.5wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Over | 44c | 44.39$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.43 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c8e…cebfbacked Over | 38c | 44.34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.85 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Over | 42c | 41.1$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.14 | 913 | 34.1%311 W · 602 L | -27.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4112…5d9dbacked Over | 38c | 35.06$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.36 | 156 | 51.3%80 W · 76 L | +5.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 59c | 32.9$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.49 | 594 | 50.8%302 W · 292 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea10…a070backed Over | 53c | 28.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 71 | 46.5%33 W · 38 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22d2…82d7backed Under | 47c | 26.12$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.84 | 91 | 41.8%38 W · 53 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec7…1e38backed Under | 55c | 23.94$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cac…988ebacked Under | 63c | 23.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 51 | 64.7%33 W · 18 L | +4.2wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c08…af98backed Under | 61c | 23.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.09 | 337 | 56.4%190 W · 147 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 64c | 22.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 657 | 21.9%144 W · 513 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xea58…b635backed Over | 49c | 22.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Under | 63c | 20.69$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.69 | 696 | 53.4%372 W · 324 L | -16.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 893 | 55.5%496 W · 397 L | +67.6wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Over | 61c | 18.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 332 | 51.5%171 W · 161 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kings vs. Islanders: O/U 6.5this page
- Kings vs. IslandersKings won
- Kings vs. Islanders: O/U 4.5Over won
- Kings vs. Islanders: O/U 5.5Under won
- Kings vs. Islanders: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Islanders (-1.5)Kings won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.