NHL · resolved market
Spread: Islanders (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa380b8b3b73d6fec950982583a719518f582bdf1d0d28be3a32f5197e5e083c7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Kingsof Islanders, Kings
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,730
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,730 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Islanders | 34c | 2,914$999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$998.86 | 210 | 36.2%76 W · 134 L | -14.6wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Kings | 66c | 2,555$1,686 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$868.7 | 919 | 45.6%419 W · 500 L | -27.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ce…7ec8backed Kings | 65c | 902.34$587 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.82 | 623 | 46.9%292 W · 331 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Islanders | 32c | 539.97$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.55 | 594 | 50.8%302 W · 292 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Islanders | 34c | 354$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.33 | 366 | 48.6%178 W · 188 L | -14.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc23…8283backed Kings | 68c | 294.12$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.12 | 252 | 58.3%147 W · 105 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd4…ce48backed Islanders | 35c | 259.54$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.84 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Islanders | 35c | 195$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.62 | 868 | 52.4%455 W · 413 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed Kings | 66c | 143.33$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.41 | 177 | 50.8%90 W · 87 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Kings | 68c | 117.65$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.65 | 811 | 57.2%464 W · 347 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Islanders | 32c | 102.94$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.96 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x011b…fcc3backed Kings | 68c | 102.94$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.94 | 177 | 59.9%106 W · 71 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2942…a018backed Kings | 68c | 100.49$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.49 | 215 | 60.9%131 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Islanders | 32c | 100.25$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.08 | 786 | 51.8%407 W · 379 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9a…a9a8backed Kings | 66c | 99.99$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9dc…038ebacked Islanders | 33c | 85.55$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.23 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c04…2e2dbacked Kings | 69c | 73.91$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.91 | 542 | 60.3%327 W · 215 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Islanders | 33c | 72.97$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.08 | 1,092 | 50.4%550 W · 542 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Islanders | 32c | 62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 381 | 47.2%180 W · 201 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Kings | 65c | 59$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.65 | 831 | 49.5%411 W · 420 L | -9.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Kings | 69c | 50.72$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.72 | 401 | 62.1%249 W · 152 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc53…6bd3backed Kings | 68c | 44.12$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.12 | 540 | 49.4%267 W · 273 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04eb…f50dbacked Kings | 67c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 266 | 57.9%154 W · 112 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Islanders | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 1,190 | 50.7%603 W · 587 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6f…f414backed Kings | 66c | 35.12$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.06 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4112…5d9dbacked Kings | 63c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.53 | 156 | 51.3%80 W · 76 L | +5.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Kings | 69c | 30.43$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.43 | 690 | 61.6%425 W · 265 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec66…e58fbacked Kings | 68c | 23.53$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.53 | 336 | 60.7%204 W · 132 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Kings | 67c | 23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.48 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x07c9…9f5bbacked Kings | 69c | 20.29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 365 | 61.9%226 W · 139 L | +12.5wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Kings | 78c | 17.11$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.83 | 393 | 44.8%176 W · 217 L | +23.3wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Islanders (-1.5)this page
- Kings vs. IslandersKings won
- Kings vs. Islanders: O/U 4.5Over won
- Kings vs. Islanders: O/U 5.5Under won
- Kings vs. Islanders: O/U 6.5Under won
- Kings vs. Islanders: O/U 7.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.