NHL · resolved market
Kings vs. Islanders: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3951f44c64c6c16c149e891aa16f2a5565e565446e4bc8415cbd8a020dfa4d61
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,296
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,296 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1d1a…0df6backed Under | 51c | 20,253$10,329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,923.99 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +3.4wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Over | 49c | 10,165$4,989 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,988.64 | 366 | 48.6%178 W · 188 L | -14.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Over | 49c | 4,150$2,039 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,039.5 | 868 | 52.4%455 W · 413 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e1…5ad0backed Over | 49c | 4,000$1,960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,960 | 331 | 51.7%171 W · 160 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ce…7ec8backed Over | 50c | 3,000$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 623 | 46.9%292 W · 331 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Under | 50c | 2,849$1,420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,428.65 | 515 | 50.7%261 W · 254 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2196…da90backed Over | 49c | 2,000$980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$980 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -29%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12d9…01bbbacked Over | 49c | 1,500$735 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$735 | 185 | 47%87 W · 98 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Over | 74c | 1,019$749 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$749.25 | 588 | 41.8%246 W · 342 L | -20.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 49c | 599.15$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.56 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x299f…2140backed Under | 48c | 512.1$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.45 | 388 | 49.5%192 W · 196 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x445e…9be0backed Under | 51c | 500$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245 | 336 | 52.1%175 W · 161 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Under | 51c | 443.09$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.12 | 79 | 38%30 W · 49 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d9…76dbbacked Over | 51c | 412.51$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 485 | 52.2%253 W · 232 L | +8.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00b7…780dbacked Under | 50c | 405.34$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae54…e3bdbacked Under | 50c | 404.98$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1244…6c54backed Over | 51c | 401.49$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8b8…b4c7backed Over | 51c | 400.49$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeccd…d100backed Under | 49c | 400$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204 | 62 | 59.7%37 W · 25 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 51c | 399.99$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.99 | 916 | 53.9%494 W · 422 L | +39.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Under | 32c | 309$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.87 | 393 | 44.8%176 W · 217 L | +23.3wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7412…85d0backed Over | 50c | 275.66$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.83 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 20c | 253$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.4 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Over | 52c | 231.09$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 243 | 46.1%112 W · 131 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 33c | 213.35$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.59 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Over | 48c | 200.38$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.18 | 919 | 45.6%419 W · 500 L | -27.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95b7…d633backed Over | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 261 | 54%141 W · 120 L | +7.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4112…5d9dbacked Over | 49c | 195.14$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.21 | 156 | 51.3%80 W · 76 L | +5.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24bc…1b77backed Over | 52c | 192.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 122 | 58.2%71 W · 51 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Under | 50c | 180$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 1,093 | 51.8%566 W · 527 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ceb…b516backed Over | 50c | 160$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b41…01c7backed Under | 36c | 138.89$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.89 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67be…8a3bbacked Under | 51c | 108.05$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.05 | 187 | 46.5%87 W · 100 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 31c | 106.93$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.15 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 37c | 104.02$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.88 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x850b…5493backed Under | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…2bc3backed Under | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 285 | 42.8%122 W · 163 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 51c | 98.02$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.03 | 786 | 51.8%407 W · 379 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5668…eababacked Over | 53c | 94.52$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2586…c893backed Under | 48c | 65.55$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.08 | 836 | 52.8%441 W · 395 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1769…94efbacked Over | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 349 | 49.9%174 W · 175 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Over | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 780 | 38.5%300 W · 480 L | +23.5wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 20c | 53$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 920 | 49.7%457 W · 463 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 51c | 51.85$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.41 | 657 | 21.9%144 W · 513 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x61e4…fb60backed Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 112 | 58%65 W · 47 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…1fafbacked Under | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.62 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e01…7ef0backed Over | 48c | 47.02$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.57 | 76 | 35.5%27 W · 49 L | -12.1wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -33%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6f…f414backed Under | 49c | 43.42$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.04 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc897…f3b3backed Over | 61c | 43$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.38 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf9…7560backed Over | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc53…6bd3backed Under | 50c | 40.08$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.08 | 540 | 49.4%267 W · 273 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3980…ae74backed Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88bd…c088backed Over | 49c | 39.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.59 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -4.3wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Under | 52c | 37.4$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.95 | 355 | 53%188 W · 167 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5193…b348backed Under | 52c | 36.54$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.54 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -3.3wins | -0.33per pick | 53cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Over | 52c | 35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.05 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 78c | 31$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.18 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeca1…57e4backed Over | 49c | 29.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc95f…357fbacked Over | 49c | 29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 71c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 893 | 55.5%496 W · 397 L | +67.6wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x69ff…0d1dbacked Under | 59c | 24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.84 | 271 | 50.2%136 W · 135 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebb4…cbb9backed Under | 52c | 21.15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Over | 68c | 15.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 1,107 | 52%576 W · 531 L | +63.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kings vs. Islanders: O/U 5.5this page
- Kings vs. IslandersKings won
- Kings vs. Islanders: O/U 4.5Over won
- Kings vs. Islanders: O/U 6.5Under won
- Kings vs. Islanders: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Islanders (-1.5)Kings won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.