TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Cleveland Guardiansof Cincinnati Reds, Cleveland Guardians
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,795
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,936

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,795 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x204f…5e14backed Cleveland Guardians43c1,108$471 inWon+$636.9912,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4259…77c1backed Cincinnati Reds57c701.75$400 inLost-$4002,24357.6%1,293 W · 950 L+37.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Cincinnati Reds57c275.02$157 inLost-$156.5610,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f4e…1fb8backed Cincinnati Reds68c269$183 inLost-$183.223,79245.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L-5.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Cincinnati Reds55c255$140 inLost-$140.256,11655.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L+344.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Cincinnati Reds56c226$127 inLost-$126.5611,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc75b…3ea7backed Cleveland Guardians44c173.73$76 inWon+$97.291,19550%597 W · 598 L+5.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x8f17…b55dbacked Cincinnati Reds67c170$114 inLost-$113.92986.2%25 W · 4 L+8.3wins+0.29per pick58cpaid+78.5%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Cleveland Guardians34c162.4$55 inWon+$107.774,38144.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L+77.8wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Cleveland Guardians36c160$58 inWon+$102.431038.4%119 W · 191 L+9.7wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+28.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb0f4…6fa9backed Cleveland Guardians42c100$42 inWon+$581,77758.4%1,037 W · 740 L+91.8wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+3.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x93ac…2761backed Cincinnati Reds57c86.09$49 inLost-$49.072,58361.4%1,587 W · 996 L+70.9wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7f1c…390dbacked Cleveland Guardians44c63.89$28 inWon+$35.7810846.3%50 W · 58 L-3.7wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-12.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa11f…1252backed Cleveland Guardians54c47.09$25 inWon+$21.6618651.1%95 W · 91 L0.0wins0.00per pick51cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd3c2…5509backed Cleveland Guardians54c47.09$25 inWon+$21.6622154.3%120 W · 101 L+9.5wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+3.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc546…058ebacked Cleveland Guardians48c40$19 inWon+$20.85,12754.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L+232.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1a59…a57ebacked Cincinnati Reds52c35$18 inLost-$18.267742.2%286 W · 391 L-36.7wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-18%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2bcf…c678backed Cincinnati Reds58c34.02$20 inLost-$19.7324654.9%135 W · 111 L+3.2wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2528…b77dbacked Cincinnati Reds58c33$19 inLost-$19.141,63055.2%899 W · 731 L+2.2wins0.00per pick55cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde25…c0a5backed Cleveland Guardians44c28.52$13 inWon+$15.9746946.3%217 W · 252 L-25.7wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-11.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6c16…66cebacked Cincinnati Reds58c24.17$14 inLost-$14.0266056.2%371 W · 289 L+12.6wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.