MLB · resolved market
Cincinnati Reds vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 11.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xce69df95a7f7d50da83b79120f0aac33d79aea675387d585cbc0a53944d01c41
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,911
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,495
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,911 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x255a…3435backed Under | 30c | 4,661$1,398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,398.19 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 70c | 4,636$3,245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,390.84 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Over | 22c | 1,032$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$807.39 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 77c | 554.37$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427.11 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa951…8a2fbacked Under | 2c | 550$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 46c | 508.02$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.49 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…5e8abacked Under | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 119 | 14.3%17 W · 102 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +289.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 54c | 464.86$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.1 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Over | 68c | 424.45$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.28 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 46c | 398.23$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.53 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 45c | 177$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.16 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 45c | 128.82$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.11 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Under | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 946 | 48.9%463 W · 483 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca20…7b68backed Under | 64c | 110.15$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.8 | 371 | 43.9%163 W · 208 L | -21.4wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…a7a0backed Over | 29c | 100$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71 | 827 | 41.1%340 W · 487 L | -21.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 48c | 81.71$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.19 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Under | 78c | 81$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.18 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde56…c2f9backed Under | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 304 | 52%158 W · 146 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 49c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.52 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Under | 53c | 52.61$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.05 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Over | 22c | 52.27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.77 | 597 | 49.9%298 W · 299 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 78c | 49.11$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.31 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Over | 44c | 40.84$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.87 | 1,014 | 50.4%511 W · 503 L | +52.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Under | 78c | 38.97$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 701 | 54.2%380 W · 321 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1833…cc31backed Under | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +12%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Under | 79c | 33.82$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.72 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 48c | 26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.46 | 486 | 53.7%261 W · 225 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05b7…c24abacked Over | 47c | 22.16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.74 | 280 | 43.2%121 W · 159 L | -23.2wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xce5f…ab17backed Over | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.78 | 353 | 41.1%145 W · 208 L | -16.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde25…c0a5backed Under | 79c | 17.26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 469 | 46.3%217 W · 252 L | -25.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 11.5this page
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Cleveland GuardiansCincinnati Reds won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 10.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 5.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 6.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-3.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cincinnati Reds vs. Cleveland GuardiansNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.