MLB · resolved market
Cincinnati Reds vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4e80f90f68f93f98949d760ca05fa145a5636d38d103a3d25efe63ea06849474
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,117
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,995
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,117 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8511…4a6bbacked Under | 48c | 1,920$921 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$920.95 | 436 | 54.8%239 W · 197 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 52c | 1,886$982 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$903.03 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Under | 43c | 1,380$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 45c | 1,359$608 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$750.84 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 45c | 1,254$568 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$685.81 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 69c | 1,200$829 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370.51 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 64c | 1,199$763 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$763.2 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 4c | 854.13$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.47 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 35c | 604$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.02 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 54c | 562.15$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.31 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde56…c2f9backed Over | 34c | 541.85$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360.04 | 304 | 52%158 W · 146 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 46c | 482.43$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.64 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78b0…9f1abacked Over | 54c | 372.22$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.22 | 390 | 47.4%185 W · 205 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 46c | 362.41$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.33 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 46c | 312.38$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.69 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…a7a0backed Over | 35c | 285.78$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.23 | 827 | 41.1%340 W · 487 L | -21.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 56c | 279.84$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.66 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 28c | 195.4$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.25 | 996 | 24.6%245 W · 751 L | -70.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Over | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 1,000 | 52.4%524 W · 476 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 48c | 192.31$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.31 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2728…4f96backed Over | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 534 | 48.9%261 W · 273 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Under | 73c | 135.89$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.2 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Under | 70c | 133.74$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.54 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd96a…d8cebacked Over | 27c | 119$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.87 | 335 | 15.5%52 W · 283 L | -12.7wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 65c | 109.43$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.98 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 30c | 82.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.24 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Over | 53c | 67$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.49 | 722 | 47.6%344 W · 378 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…aa3cbacked Under | 47c | 63.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 149 | 46.3%69 W · 80 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6e…9bc5backed Over | 53c | 62.42$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.34 | 75 | 58.7%44 W · 31 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 48c | 53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.42 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4dea…5e23backed Over | 53c | 53$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.91 | 425 | 50.1%213 W · 212 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 53c | 49$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.92 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05b7…c24abacked Over | 53c | 44.21$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.56 | 280 | 43.2%121 W · 159 L | -23.2wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xca20…7b68backed Under | 58c | 43.82$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.58 | 371 | 43.9%163 W · 208 L | -21.4wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Over | 56c | 42.03$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.61 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 57c | 41.11$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.31 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Under | 63c | 40.01$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.09 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4193…4853backed Over | 53c | 35.11$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 846 | 51.5%436 W · 410 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41d8…7233backed Under | 47c | 28.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 85 | 60%51 W · 34 L | +7.1wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Under | 48c | 24.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 22 | 0%0 W · 22 L | -9.2wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 28-0.20 edge/pick |
| 0x7268…78abbacked Over | 47c | 23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.23 | 200 | 40%80 W · 120 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 53c | 22.26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.46 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1c…390dbacked Under | 61c | 22.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 108 | 46.3%50 W · 58 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Under | 70c | 20.07$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…66cebacked Under | 70c | 19.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 660 | 56.2%371 W · 289 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Over | 56c | 19.53$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.68 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x059d…10e3backed Over | 70c | 14.29$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.29 | 246 | 46.7%115 W · 131 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…3107backed Under | 71c | 14.03$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 125 | 72%90 W · 35 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5this page
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Cleveland GuardiansCincinnati Reds won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 10.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 11.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 5.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 6.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-3.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cincinnati Reds vs. Cleveland GuardiansNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.