MLB · resolved market
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4fc45dee39d177d0b56365b39967778e1eb74d58e8be87fa04cd8982cf60871c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cleveland Guardiansof Cincinnati Reds, Cleveland Guardians
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,115
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,068
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,115 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x255a…3435backed Cincinnati Reds | 46c | 5,525$2,550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,550 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Cleveland Guardians | 54c | 4,983$2,707 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,275.66 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Cincinnati Reds | 55c | 4,792$2,631 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,631.08 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Cleveland Guardians | 46c | 4,125$1,906 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,218.71 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Cleveland Guardians | 46c | 1,299$591 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$707.55 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Cleveland Guardians | 45c | 766.13$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$421.37 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Cincinnati Reds | 47c | 600$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Cincinnati Reds | 46c | 197$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.6 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa951…8a2fbacked Cleveland Guardians | 62c | 153$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.14 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked Cincinnati Reds | 26c | 149$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.74 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -5.3wins | -0.24per pick | 38cpaid | -71.7%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc978…706bbacked Cincinnati Reds | 40c | 138.44$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.86 | 310 | 46.5%144 W · 166 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca20…7b68backed Cincinnati Reds | 41c | 130.53$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.52 | 371 | 43.9%163 W · 208 L | -21.4wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Cincinnati Reds | 38c | 127.35$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.39 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Cleveland Guardians | 46c | 113$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.02 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Cleveland Guardians | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Cleveland Guardians | 62c | 98.66$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.84 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Cincinnati Reds | 41c | 98.61$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.43 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Cleveland Guardians | 55c | 73.17$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.16 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Cleveland Guardians | 45c | 57.6$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.68 | 1,014 | 50.4%511 W · 503 L | +52.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…4f82backed Cleveland Guardians | 46c | 53.72$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.01 | 304 | 54.3%165 W · 139 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e73…3f4ebacked Cleveland Guardians | 43c | 48.26$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.51 | 325 | 50.5%164 W · 161 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Cleveland Guardians | 62c | 41.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.76 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Cleveland Guardians | 74c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.46 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Cincinnati Reds | 41c | 38.19$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…6a0bbacked Cleveland Guardians | 43c | 27.95$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.93 | 469 | 52.5%246 W · 223 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Cleveland Guardians | 54c | 25.71$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.78 | 677 | 42.2%286 W · 391 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Cleveland Guardians | 45c | 24.58$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.52 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Cincinnati Reds | 46c | 24.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 374 | 44.4%166 W · 208 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Cleveland Guardians | 51c | 23.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.38 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f9…29a9backed Cleveland Guardians | 61c | 22.05$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.63 | 228 | 48.2%110 W · 118 L | -9.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Cincinnati Reds | 58c | 18.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 486 | 53.7%261 W · 225 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5)this page
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Cleveland GuardiansCincinnati Reds won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 10.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 11.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 5.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 6.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-3.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cincinnati Reds vs. Cleveland GuardiansNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.