Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 29°C on August 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7f09e18f4c7bf5bff6f55cf60672643ca903ce86c4bd982efb2e23037b080e22
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,137
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,519
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,137 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa982…6fd1backed Yes | 11c | 811.59$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.93 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 71c | 368.18$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.72 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 10c | 274.87$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.44 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 6c | 255.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…84afbacked Yes | 33c | 249.61$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.89 | 369 | 30.6%113 W · 256 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec3…a081backed Yes | 14c | 210$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.61 | 175 | 24.6%43 W · 132 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed No | 66c | 200$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x371b…8786backed Yes | 28c | 181.94$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.3 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 36c | 170$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.2 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 7c | 169.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 566 | 27.7%157 W · 409 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 73c | 151.57$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.47 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked No | 70c | 149.91$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.96 | 335 | 35.2%118 W · 217 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 63c | 145.74$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.31 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a9c…079dbacked Yes | 25c | 138.03$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.7 | 94 | 36.2%34 W · 60 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +94.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83dd…1517backed No | 74c | 135.48$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.48 | 79 | 57%45 W · 34 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 33c | 134.82$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.14 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79ad…4eedbacked Yes | 29c | 120.17$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.67 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked Yes | 28c | 120$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.2 | 348 | 31%108 W · 240 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91f8…d951backed Yes | 17c | 118.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 57 | 52.6%30 W · 27 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 59c | 114.4$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.9 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed No | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 371 | 50.4%187 W · 184 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 35c | 92.6$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.36 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8958…656dbacked No | 64c | 85$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.58 | 59 | 67.8%40 W · 19 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…914fbacked Yes | 39c | 79$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.98 | 114 | 38.6%44 W · 70 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked Yes | 13c | 75.88$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed Yes | 15c | 67.84$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 23c | 66.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes | 34c | 66.66$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 63c | 65.12$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.94 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 38c | 62.04$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.48 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf178…3c3abacked Yes | 38c | 56.79$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.58 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0c1…bb30backed Yes | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 36c | 55.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.91 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 64c | 53$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.85 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0cd…d931backed Yes | 39c | 49.41$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.46 | 199 | 56.3%112 W · 87 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 40c | 48$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 63c | 46.13$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.85 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 36c | 46$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe2…f54abacked No | 71c | 42.44$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.44 | 107 | 44.9%48 W · 59 L | -7.9wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 65c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.95 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9006…9fb8backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 270 | 37.4%101 W · 169 L | +12.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 37c | 36.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17ea…7838backed Yes | 36c | 36.19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +8.1wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed Yes | 33c | 36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b25…e4bebacked No | 64c | 34.57$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.51 | 127 | 58.3%74 W · 53 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 44c | 31.72$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.73 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x3990…06bebacked Yes | 36c | 30.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 299 | 27.8%83 W · 216 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x276a…d445backed Yes | 36c | 29.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbda1…827fbacked No | 71c | 28.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.28 | 309 | 19.4%60 W · 249 L | -17.1wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 79c | 27.06$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.68 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7c…34e7backed No | 64c | 22.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.28 | 185 | 67.6%125 W · 60 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 71c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a7…2657backed No | 66c | 20.53$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.92 | 183 | 28.4%52 W · 131 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 375 | 41.6%156 W · 219 L | -52.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.98 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 408 | 62.3%254 W · 154 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 66c | 19.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 68c | 15.61$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 29°C on August 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 26°C on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 27°C on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 28°C on August 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 30°C on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 31°C on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 32°C on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 33°C or higher on August 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.