Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 28°C on August 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xab7617306b8f97a06ec17d5727d054a12b06a3db540ade50c00714b8ff9ae05e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,461
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,427
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,461 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 90 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 68c | 997.71$683 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$682.68 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f74…8774backed Yes | 28c | 535.43$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385.43 | 212 | 36.8%78 W · 134 L | +14.2wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f2…96d7backed No | 65c | 512.4$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.72 | 244 | 66.8%163 W · 81 L | +20.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 33c | 507.3$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.55 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 17c | 434.12$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.73 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 36c | 420.81$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.81 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 11c | 393.07$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.98 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 56c | 374.45$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.97 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6396…7183backed Yes | 34c | 322.75$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.47 | 108 | 27.8%30 W · 78 L | -9.5wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf742…400ebacked No | 15c | 301.22$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.33 | 116 | 14.7%17 W · 99 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 32c | 300$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 30c | 271.24$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.65 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x80e1…47a8backed No | 55c | 270.94$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.02 | 242 | 62.4%151 W · 91 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked Yes | 25c | 257.77$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.58 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32d1…e5c8backed No | 6c | 250$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 47 | 12.8%6 W · 41 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 9cpaid | +56%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b02…abdfbacked No | 4c | 238.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 19cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 26c | 230.66$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.03 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 68c | 225.22$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.8 | 566 | 27.7%157 W · 409 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 16c | 203.72$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.39 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 26c | 199.87$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.96 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 10c | 166.07$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.89 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4ac5…1519backed No | 13c | 159.27$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae3…372abacked No | 14c | 155.76$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 140 | 60%84 W · 56 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 64c | 154.92$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.08 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 70c | 153.27$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.65 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 49c | 152.64$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.23 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 66c | 150.48$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.03 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 65c | 149.98$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.49 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa982…6fd1backed Yes | 74c | 140.57$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.04 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6e…5848backed No | 74c | 137.92$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.4 | 241 | 41.1%99 W · 142 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 37c | 134.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.52 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 78c | 133.54$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.55 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 18c | 128.62$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.43 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f7…f8debacked Yes | 37c | 111.33$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.32 | 287 | 42.5%122 W · 165 L | +24.3wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 63c | 105$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.15 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 71c | 104.74$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.94 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8547…39abbacked Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 148 | 33.1%49 W · 99 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 371 | 50.4%187 W · 184 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 72c | 97.88$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.78 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 47c | 94.15$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.84 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc176…5d01backed Yes | 72c | 90.98$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.39 | 104 | 63.5%66 W · 38 L | +6.1wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 33c | 88.9$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.96 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 77c | 88$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked No | 14c | 82.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 68c | 80.33$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.91 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb9…ce8fbacked No | 27c | 72$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 152 | 36.2%55 W · 97 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed No | 28c | 70$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8867…7683backed Yes | 18c | 70$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.4 | 72 | 40.3%29 W · 43 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 69.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8c…3e30backed Yes | 74c | 69.1$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.28 | 123 | 50.4%62 W · 61 L | -14.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0368…9874backed Yes | 72c | 65$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 63c | 63.57$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.84 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0c1…bb30backed Yes | 32c | 62.42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.42 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa81a…c791backed No | 18c | 62.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79ad…4eedbacked No | 41c | 59.66$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.26 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55ca…498fbacked Yes | 46c | 58.28$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.73 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +7.0wins | +0.21per pick | 36cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf178…3c3abacked Yes | 32c | 56.25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.25 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed No | 23c | 53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc55…522bbacked Yes | 33c | 51.86$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.56 | 178 | 31.5%56 W · 122 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 78c | 50$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7c…34e7backed No | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 185 | 67.6%125 W · 60 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11b5…8c02backed No | 25c | 48.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f52…895cbacked No | 80c | 45.24$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.98 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3f…fde2backed No | 70c | 42.62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 32c | 41.03$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x186d…8bfebacked Yes | 75c | 40.86$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.26 | 191 | 66.5%127 W · 64 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 67c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…eb02backed Yes | 33c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.8 | 348 | 46.6%162 W · 186 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 69c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked Yes | 28c | 39.2$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.03 | 317 | 48.6%154 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 71c | 38.68$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 27c | 38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…13d6backed Yes | 33c | 34.55$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.15 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x276a…d445backed Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea21…f753backed Yes | 61c | 28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.96 | 236 | 68.2%161 W · 75 L | +18.8wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 78c | 27.23$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.99 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 74c | 27.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.11 | 285 | 46.3%132 W · 153 L | -17.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 78c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 70c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc651…895bbacked Yes | 69c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.82 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 62c | 21.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17e4…7718backed No | 72c | 21.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 43 | 67.4%29 W · 14 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 70c | 21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f0…1731backed No | 70c | 18.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 72c | 15.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x913c…c63cbacked No | 67c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -3.1wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 28°C on August 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 26°C on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 27°C on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 29°C on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 30°C on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 31°C on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 32°C on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 33°C or higher on August 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.