MLB · resolved market
Atlanta Braves vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7f14ed4e94499c54c2323ce0fe2c1a50af9f613148fe81867acadda1c25723a8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,849
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,131
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,849 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 42c | 1,895$793 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$793.3 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 25c | 1,465$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.55 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeba0…4586backed Over | 15c | 1,200$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,020 | 96 | 36.5%35 W · 61 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 60c | 777.72$463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.72 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf92a…80a7backed Under | 74c | 333.39$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.44 | 56 | 66.1%37 W · 19 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Over | 68c | 302.01$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.64 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc74c…2413backed Over | 62c | 234.05$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.72 | 94 | 55.3%52 W · 42 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 63c | 203$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.85 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dce…b2acbacked Over | 44c | 180.29$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.45 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 68c | 146.65$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.93 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Under | 38c | 130.79$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.7 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 31c | 128.23$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.48 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 59c | 107$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.87 | 11,356 | 52.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L | +209.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb428…74c8backed Under | 40c | 102.5$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 442 | 45.5%201 W · 241 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 31c | 85.84$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.23 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7636…2acbbacked Over | 36c | 77.78$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.78 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Over | 16c | 65$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.6 | 707 | 37.6%266 W · 441 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 42c | 57$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.72 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49c5…3de7backed Under | 40c | 45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 341 | 49.3%168 W · 173 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 49c | 44.02$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.78 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Over | 35c | 37.24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.08 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee60…6902backed Over | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…13d6backed Over | 73c | 29.93$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.03 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Under | 66c | 24.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 1,205 | 58.8%708 W · 497 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05c5…6a69backed Under | 66c | 24.35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 473 | 58.4%276 W · 197 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Over | 55c | 22.64$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.13 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23df…640abacked Over | 59c | 21.03$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.62 | 400 | 48.5%194 W · 206 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…b38fbacked Under | 68c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 406 | 58.4%237 W · 169 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…d9e6backed Under | 68c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 552 | 59.6%329 W · 223 L | +11.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Atlanta Braves vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 7.5this page
- Atlanta Braves vs. Minnesota TwinsMinnesota Twins won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Minnesota Twins: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 10.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 6.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Atlanta Braves vs. Minnesota TwinsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.