MLB · resolved market
Atlanta Braves vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc537a3fbe00ec05429df41826b26b192ba850d9e3712ffd65ddb8666366b3019
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,602
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,781
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,602 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa54d…deb8backed Over | 37c | 799.99$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$504 | 299 | 50.5%151 W · 148 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 37c | 653.32$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.75 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 63c | 598.28$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.92 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcba5…cd88backed Under | 58c | 400$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232 | 660 | 50.2%331 W · 329 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 42c | 400$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Under | 62c | 311.38$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.12 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4dd2…14c2backed Over | 41c | 282.11$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.44 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed Under | 33c | 272$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.4 | 474 | 46.6%221 W · 253 L | +26.0wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 59c | 240.7$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.67 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf92a…80a7backed Over | 37c | 221.92$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.81 | 56 | 66.1%37 W · 19 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4f8c…f8bdbacked Over | 78c | 192.37$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.37 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…92d3backed Under | 32c | 172.23$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.11 | 127 | 59.1%75 W · 52 L | +9.8wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Over | 54c | 150$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.94 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Under | 32c | 148.04$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.31 | 780 | 52.2%407 W · 373 L | +22.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 20c | 101.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.17 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 41c | 97$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.23 | 483 | 39.8%192 W · 291 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c1e…befebacked Over | 42c | 95.24$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.24 | 285 | 53%151 W · 134 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bcf…04fcbacked Under | 53c | 69.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.8 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 57c | 55$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.35 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 66c | 50.69$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.49 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…8f45backed Under | 58c | 42$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.36 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Under | 74c | 41$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.34 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Over | 43c | 38$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.66 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07b4…6855backed Under | 68c | 36.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.66 | 141 | 49.6%70 W · 71 L | -7.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Over | 38c | 33.98$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.07 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23df…640abacked Over | 49c | 32.02$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.19 | 400 | 48.5%194 W · 206 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb092…48d5backed Under | 77c | 30.64$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9707…6fbdbacked Under | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 54c | 22.02$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 73c | 22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Atlanta Braves vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5this page
- Atlanta Braves vs. Minnesota TwinsMinnesota Twins won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Minnesota Twins: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 10.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 6.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 7.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Atlanta Braves vs. Minnesota TwinsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.