Euroleague · resolved market
Bilbao Basket vs. Manresa
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7f3855857ba42085632198080e87b1545e5d0204c614e78eb6a54939b6b77475
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Manresaof Bilbao Basket, Manresa
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Euroleagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,309
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,465
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,309 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Euroleague is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Euroleague | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x255a…3435backed Bilbao Basket | 24c | 1,188$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.99 | 132 | 20.5%27 W · 105 L | -6.0wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Manresa | 48c | 1,175$559 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$615.9 | 435 | 43.7%190 W · 245 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36d8…c7c7backed Manresa | 76c | 1,042$792 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 140 | 37.9%53 W · 87 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Manresa | 44c | 1,034$451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$582.37 | 542 | 51.5%279 W · 263 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x623b…8facbacked Bilbao Basket | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc0…af1abacked Bilbao Basket | 58c | 502.31$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.2 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.20per pick | 41cpaid | -35%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Manresa | 36c | 374.77$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.39 | 215 | 35.8%77 W · 138 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x165b…711cbacked Bilbao Basket | 5c | 349.53$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -3.8wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Bilbao Basket | 68c | 330.92$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.39 | 269 | 35.3%95 W · 174 L | -10.9wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -18%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2cd…607ebacked Bilbao Basket | 74c | 265.13$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.91 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 76cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2775…3652backed Bilbao Basket | 59c | 184.43$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.96 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda22…6d2abacked Bilbao Basket | 63c | 155.21$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.78 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41e1…f9a8backed Bilbao Basket | 68c | 150.67$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.83 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Bilbao Basket | 73c | 138.7$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.08 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5df3…bb17backed Manresa | 27c | 138.36$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1852…cb4ebacked Manresa | 41c | 131.01$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.43 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ef6…c784backed Manresa | 52c | 122.44$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.87 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed Manresa | 42c | 120.6$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.4 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xacf9…626dbacked Manresa | 50c | 105.92$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.96 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…899bbacked Manresa | 30c | 87.6$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.13 | 209 | 36.4%76 W · 133 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ee9…1362backed Bilbao Basket | 62c | 83.81$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.96 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Bilbao Basket | 50c | 72.5$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.25 | 289 | 43.6%126 W · 163 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Manresa | 51c | 63.75$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.52 | 316 | 51.6%163 W · 153 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe727…f6e1backed Manresa | 40c | 51.82$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.98 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7541…7d75backed Bilbao Basket | 68c | 48.55$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Bilbao Basket | 58c | 42.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.66 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -4.7wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked Manresa | 63c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Manresa | 56c | 34.67$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.24 | 70 | 42.9%30 W · 40 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Manresa | 53c | 34.49$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.38 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59a1…8263backed Bilbao Basket | 64c | 33.26$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.25 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2494…17b3backed Manresa | 47c | 31.82$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.96 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8314…0f1ebacked Bilbao Basket | 71c | 31.5$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.37 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd744…ee84backed Bilbao Basket | 63c | 31.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.56 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.20per pick | 56cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Bilbao Basket | 40c | 29.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 64 | 70.3%45 W · 19 L | +11.5wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Manresa | 53c | 24.07$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.21 | 352 | 34.7%122 W · 230 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Bilbao Basket | 58c | 23.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 370 | 52.7%195 W · 175 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…cefbbacked Bilbao Basket | 51c | 21.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c25…c31fbacked Bilbao Basket | 72c | 20.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Manresa | 67c | 18.96$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.17 | 99 | 46.5%46 W · 53 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Euroleague and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.