Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 40-41°F on March 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7f774e4669bab93909b8e8e79cc3bdb648c71e84ff3bebda4f68b5e6474c767d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,709
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,709 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 27c | 568.26$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.73 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 14c | 552.09$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.36 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 3c | 499.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 76c | 332.04$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.36 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 75c | 295.53$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.51 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7f…44d4backed No | 75c | 265.83$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.77 | 249 | 66.7%166 W · 83 L | +15.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2dfa…e524backed Yes | 37c | 262.23$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.6 | 27 | 0%0 W · 27 L | -3.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9b2b…5752backed Yes | 41c | 243.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…4ff1backed Yes | 26c | 237.85$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.5 | 295 | 58%171 W · 124 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 32c | 228.19$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.69 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 24c | 217.64$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.05 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x420c…1f36backed Yes | 20c | 191.26$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.67 | 298 | 35.2%105 W · 193 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe34…8ee7backed No | 71c | 181.99$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.82 | 163 | 55.2%90 W · 73 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 13c | 165.94$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.26 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x3680…f087backed Yes | 18c | 165.15$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 244 | 32.8%80 W · 164 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed No | 74c | 156.42$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.51 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c7…e5dbbacked Yes | 28c | 137$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 8c | 130$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc33…9636backed No | 62c | 129.99$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.4 | 125 | 40%50 W · 75 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52f0…34ecbacked Yes | 25c | 129$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 22c | 122.25$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.07 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e9a…33febacked Yes | 27c | 115$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb7…86afbacked Yes | 23c | 113.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…d80abacked Yes | 23c | 110.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x594e…1c11backed Yes | 21c | 110.87$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 661 | 44.5%294 W · 367 L | +57.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xace5…4457backed Yes | 15c | 106.73$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.01 | 58 | 12.1%7 W · 51 L | -7.9wins | -0.14per pick | 26cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 73c | 106$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.74 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b8…fb88backed Yes | 19c | 106$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…f31abacked Yes | 21c | 96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 21c | 88.01$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.37 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 30c | 80.27$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b22…8945backed Yes | 19c | 78.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 253 | 41.5%105 W · 148 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed Yes | 29c | 76.66$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.23 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 20c | 71.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0514…4fefbacked Yes | 27c | 68$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.44 | 195 | 31.3%61 W · 134 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x479e…56cabacked No | 75c | 64.81$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 64 | 46.9%30 W · 34 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b4e…d839backed Yes | 30c | 63.87$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.95 | 227 | 28.6%65 W · 162 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa184…be70backed No | 72c | 59$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.52 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 71cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e61…3f5ebacked Yes | 29c | 52.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb868…a538backed No | 72c | 51$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaef0…491cbacked No | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d73…43f6backed Yes | 23c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 116 | 19.8%23 W · 93 L | -7.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f5d…9911backed No | 73c | 47$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.69 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35d3…ad22backed No | 73c | 46$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 63cpaid | +64.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a62…ace3backed No | 80c | 45.45$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.09 | 49 | 61.2%30 W · 19 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 29c | 44.52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x720a…0a49backed No | 72c | 44.41$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 118 | 78.8%93 W · 25 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 71cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21c3…b9bfbacked No | 75c | 44$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f95…eecfbacked No | 79c | 39$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6478…c918backed No | 79c | 38$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32c2…d317backed No | 77c | 38$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ca1…baf3backed No | 75c | 38$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f7…5a55backed Yes | 38c | 36.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc35e…14c6backed No | 77c | 36$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 63c | 35.77$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.23 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeed2…ad97backed No | 68c | 34$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.82 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d37…48abbacked Yes | 31c | 32.57$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +58.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfecf…adb6backed No | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22be…ba43backed No | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 29 | 82.8%24 W · 5 L | +4.4wins | +0.15per pick | 68cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9a05…cb86backed No | 73c | 28.41$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.81 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -3.8wins | -0.25per pick | 72cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbe67…aa58backed No | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 57c | 28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.04 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91cb…0bbebacked No | 75c | 28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdad8…e281backed No | 79c | 27.59$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefdf…6c03backed No | 72c | 27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 75cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 75c | 26.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 77c | 25.23$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.89 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed3a…fac7backed No | 73c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb064…aae4backed No | 79c | 21.56$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.53 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc66b…cc2dbacked No | 77c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b57…52c4backed No | 71c | 20.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.96 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b8…d44cbacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xc9bc…75b4backed No | 79c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +155.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd141…0cc5backed No | 75c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb66…8990backed No | 77c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x737e…431bbacked No | 77c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.91 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf907…6789backed No | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 40-41°F on March 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 35°F or below on March 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 50°F or higher on March 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 36-37°F on March 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 38-39°F on March 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 42-43°F on March 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 44-45°F on March 5?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 46-47°F on March 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 48-49°F on March 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.