Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 42-43°F on March 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdd6d45fa95655031dbf782511da01f45cfd6a122debea92ed46bda8b7a2cb0ce
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $59,443
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $59,443 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 107 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x902a…f556backed Yes | 0c | 15,320$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.32 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19e1…976dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 191 | 1%2 W · 189 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 35c | 847$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.17 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 2c | 600$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 398 | 10.8%43 W · 355 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 23c | 542.95$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.6 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7f…44d4backed No | 73c | 499.07$363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.02 | 249 | 66.7%166 W · 83 L | +15.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 65c | 363.8$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.23 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 62c | 316.99$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.29 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed Yes | 39c | 307.97$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.93 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 300$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 32c | 290.48$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.15 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 67c | 266.58$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.08 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd98d…1179backed Yes | 14c | 250$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.74 | 232 | 31%72 W · 160 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 32c | 208.06$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.11 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 38c | 199.99$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.92 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 64c | 183.9$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.18 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 33c | 178.54$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.06 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc9…05e4backed Yes | 46c | 174.51$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe34…8ee7backed No | 61c | 169.78$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.07 | 163 | 55.2%90 W · 73 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3680…f087backed Yes | 26c | 164.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.1 | 244 | 32.8%80 W · 164 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7dc…0af0backed No | 62c | 162.35$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.35 | 66 | 43.9%29 W · 37 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 32c | 158.05$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.27 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc12…524cbacked Yes | 38c | 153$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 18c | 150$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4cc…a95dbacked No | 68c | 144.12$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.12 | 70 | 81.4%57 W · 13 L | +10.1wins | +0.14per pick | 67cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 14c | 144$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30e2…4166backed Yes | 37c | 143.99$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6443…f329backed Yes | 38c | 137$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 37c | 129.71$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea39…9e6dbacked Yes | 39c | 128.45$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9dd…5f36backed Yes | 40c | 128$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 40c | 124.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 335 | 35.2%118 W · 217 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…8fdabacked Yes | 42c | 117.83$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 31c | 110.07$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.68 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb058…852cbacked Yes | 39c | 110$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.3 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x387c…8622backed Yes | 39c | 108.51$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.32 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xace5…4457backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 58 | 12.1%7 W · 51 L | -7.9wins | -0.14per pick | 26cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x353e…9db2backed No | 76c | 99.18$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.18 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d1b…4f09backed Yes | 35c | 98.07$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.32 | 105 | 37.1%39 W · 66 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x094e…a709backed Yes | 12c | 92.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 92 | 60.9%56 W · 36 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf05b…d0b7backed Yes | 36c | 92$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.12 | 296 | 42.9%127 W · 169 L | +19.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeedf…71e6backed Yes | 34c | 87.03$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda59…51c5backed Yes | 31c | 83.84$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 63c | 80.93$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.69 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c1e…ca35backed No | 74c | 77.05$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x594e…1c11backed Yes | 18c | 76.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.59 | 661 | 44.5%294 W · 367 L | +57.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0514…4fefbacked Yes | 32c | 71.37$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.06 | 195 | 31.3%61 W · 134 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0630…c0a6backed No | 60c | 68$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6422…a30ebacked Yes | 39c | 64.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x65a3…b6bcbacked Yes | 28c | 59.68$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.58 | 43 | 11.6%5 W · 38 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed Yes | 40c | 57.91$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.16 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa906…7bcbbacked No | 62c | 57$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.66 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +49.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb5…14babacked No | 60c | 53$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6601…1c14backed No | 62c | 53$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6764…e66abacked Yes | 35c | 51.46$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17a2…242abacked Yes | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…5238backed No | 61c | 51$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.84 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d73…43f6backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 116 | 19.8%23 W · 93 L | -7.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29e1…2aebbacked No | 62c | 47$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.86 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 70cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 29c | 46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e0…82fbbacked Yes | 29c | 45.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x197e…93febacked Yes | 34c | 45.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 54c | 44.89$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.69 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 38c | 44.79$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 60c | 41.58$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.71 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ba…df9bbacked Yes | 49c | 40.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | -4.4wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3319…977abacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 264 | 26.9%71 W · 193 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc33…9636backed No | 64c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 125 | 40%50 W · 75 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f7…5a55backed Yes | 38c | 39.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51ef…e2a4backed Yes | 34c | 39.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.9wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b0…c72bbacked No | 62c | 37$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4581…91f9backed No | 64c | 36$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 63c | 35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.05 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2cf6…fbdabacked No | 63c | 35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x790a…5afcbacked No | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -3.6wins | -0.30per pick | 63cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbe67…aa58backed No | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee9…799bbacked No | 62c | 33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 77c | 32.32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.33 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa58e…9a43backed Yes | 36c | 32.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…23d9backed No | 76c | 32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 327 | 60.6%198 W · 129 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaab7…2805backed Yes | 36c | 30.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.26per pick | 42cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1669…4641backed Yes | 34c | 30.11$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 38c | 29.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 68c | 29.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.51 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes | 36c | 28.48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 183 | 16.4%30 W · 153 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6fc…2065backed No | 62c | 28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1726…1ad4backed No | 76c | 28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.78 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e2…a410backed No | 77c | 26.82$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ca…b3cdbacked No | 75c | 26.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29f9…2e5fbacked No | 60c | 25.82$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.22 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeccd…d100backed No | 60c | 25.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.22 | 131 | 22.1%29 W · 102 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32f0…c659backed No | 59c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 235 | 47.7%112 W · 123 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 60c | 24.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.86 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x215d…8e0abacked No | 60c | 24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeed2…ad97backed No | 64c | 23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.26 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cd…a968backed No | 62c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbd9…ad53backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 63 | 76.2%48 W · 15 L | +6.9wins | +0.11per pick | 65cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xedd6…9c2fbacked No | 60c | 19.71$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.88 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 42-43°F on March 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 35°F or below on March 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 50°F or higher on March 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 36-37°F on March 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 38-39°F on March 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 40-41°F on March 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 44-45°F on March 5?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 46-47°F on March 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 48-49°F on March 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.