Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 44-45°F on March 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfdba07a106ded21678594d30d69bed706f7e20dabc08c9b552762f6969c84b5c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $72,804
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $72,804 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 130 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x78c3…7003backed No | 5c | 7,705$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.42 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x872d…e948backed No | 28c | 3,020$846 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$845.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x100a…c6cebacked No | 1c | 2,108$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 255 | 4.3%11 W · 244 L | +8.3wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +221.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9abd…0fd5backed Yes | 72c | 1,520$1,094 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +125.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd44…22aebacked Yes | 72c | 1,500$1,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…4ff1backed No | 6c | 1,482$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.02 | 295 | 58%171 W · 124 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4262…d125backed No | 5c | 1,247$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.53 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e61…eaeebacked No | 1c | 1,018$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 7c | 799.96$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 9c | 799.67$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.15 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 14c | 694.42$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.22 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 24c | 538.09$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.33 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x594e…1c11backed Yes | 11c | 491.88$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440.09 | 661 | 44.5%294 W · 367 L | +57.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 68c | 416.32$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.66 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3680…f087backed Yes | 15c | 401.03$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.47 | 244 | 32.8%80 W · 164 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 73c | 379.08$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.69 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 22c | 323.55$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.4 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f38…954bbacked No | 6c | 306.01$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.58 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8f…cf0fbacked No | 13c | 295.28$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.68 | 86 | 40.7%35 W · 51 L | -9.2wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 21c | 262.95$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.94 | 335 | 35.2%118 W · 217 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3af1…9b2bbacked Yes | 27c | 262.92$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.92 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 27cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 47c | 230.84$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.97 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x294a…bbbabacked Yes | 21c | 229.88$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.61 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 9cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 11c | 227.23$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.24 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe6…e1bbbacked No | 11c | 220.26$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 49cpaid | +26%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd98d…1179backed Yes | 58c | 217.22$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.24 | 232 | 31%72 W · 160 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 55c | 215.02$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.48 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9d1…179dbacked No | 5c | 208.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed No | 72c | 206.29$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.53 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 37c | 200.14$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.53 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce2…80edbacked No | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 42 | 23.8%10 W · 32 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…3999backed No | 21c | 200$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.4 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 28c | 192.35$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.49 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9c94…964bbacked Yes | 28c | 191.74$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda59…51c5backed Yes | 26c | 191.22$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.22 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e3…51a3backed Yes | 79c | 190.92$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.4 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24fe…3419backed Yes | 38c | 169.27$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.25 | 212 | 35.8%76 W · 136 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97eb…9fbebacked Yes | 74c | 165.74$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.27 | 299 | 22.7%68 W · 231 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 76c | 156.74$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.25 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6405…7d19backed No | 31c | 150$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.8 | 84 | 38.1%32 W · 52 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed Yes | 21c | 145.39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.57 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 59c | 144$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.33 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked Yes | 45c | 141.17$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.57 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 25c | 140.28$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.21 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2205…8089backed No | 26c | 134.62$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.94 | 290 | 56.2%163 W · 127 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 34c | 134.4$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.66 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…2112backed Yes | 64c | 133.94$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.25 | 101 | 84.2%85 W · 16 L | +26.9wins | +0.27per pick | 57cpaid | +70.6%equal weight | 74+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 77c | 125.31$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.87 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 72c | 124.99$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.28 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 56c | 123.17$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.23 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked No | 14c | 121.47$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.47 | 346 | 18.8%65 W · 281 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3919…a273backed Yes | 21c | 120.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.77 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +208.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadbe…8d7cbacked Yes | 16c | 112$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.37 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd52…4f36backed Yes | 20c | 106$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +150%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4279…9f1bbacked Yes | 48c | 103$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.56 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | +9.0wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe942…2c3ebacked No | 21c | 101.92$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.43 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83 | 250 | 29.2%73 W · 177 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xece5…43cfbacked Yes | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05c8…092abacked Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 361 | 23%83 W · 278 L | +15.0wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96fc…5005backed No | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d40…7b4fbacked No | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39c0…ae83backed Yes | 19c | 99.74$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.54 | 122 | 23%28 W · 94 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 20c | 99.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.96 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6371…fc91backed Yes | 43c | 98.07$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 98 | 36.7%36 W · 62 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6764…e66abacked Yes | 20c | 98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.46 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecb9…1a1ebacked No | 11c | 97.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x095b…6f34backed Yes | 72c | 88.33$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.42 | 94 | 47.9%45 W · 49 L | +10.7wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7f…44d4backed No | 44c | 87.52$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.25 | 249 | 66.7%166 W · 83 L | +15.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6157…c668backed Yes | 20c | 83.46$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.80per pick | 20cpaid | +407.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 50c | 79$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 28c | 76.43$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.74 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x99cb…4bc2backed No | 77c | 75.3$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.63 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | -5.6wins | -0.11per pick | 68cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 76c | 73$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.76 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ddd…3252backed No | 28c | 71.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +22%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 71c | 64.35$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.75 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x345d…4e41backed Yes | 28c | 62.29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.85 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 68c | 60$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.45 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b4e…d839backed Yes | 22c | 60$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.09 | 227 | 28.6%65 W · 162 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 30c | 60$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 26c | 58.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 30c | 57.93$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.45 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9024…fe28backed Yes | 18c | 56.98$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.91 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 32cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 24c | 56$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.52 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8a75…e7d4backed Yes | 28c | 54.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.19 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 65c | 53.63$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.86 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0574…e49fbacked Yes | 23c | 52.17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.17 | 67 | 29.9%20 W · 47 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…ae21backed No | 75c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.38 | 353 | 62.9%222 W · 131 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd59e…88c1backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71d…fbdebacked Yes | 73c | 49.36$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.43 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed Yes | 26c | 49$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.26 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b22…8945backed No | 73c | 48.1$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.35 | 253 | 41.5%105 W · 148 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 21c | 47.65$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.65 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 71c | 47.15$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 73c | 46.02$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.76 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x053b…ce10backed No | 80c | 46$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a7d…2562backed No | 80c | 46$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94e6…0a73backed Yes | 23c | 45.68$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.37 | 78 | 41%32 W · 46 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1599…fbe3backed Yes | 27c | 44.87$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.87 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +122.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…15c2backed No | 77c | 44.31$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 173 | 64.7%112 W · 61 L | -10.3wins | -0.06per pick | 71cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 44-45°F on March 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 35°F or below on March 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 50°F or higher on March 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 36-37°F on March 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 38-39°F on March 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 40-41°F on March 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 42-43°F on March 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 46-47°F on March 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 48-49°F on March 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.