Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 46-47°F on March 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x48e5f9a6d37413292f92c6b56e8a2ca7ccbef5fad7b4f0b73da7448715b08973
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,313
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,313 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8bad…b337backed Yes | 0c | 11,350$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.25 | 323 | 10.5%34 W · 289 L | +15.6wins | +0.05per pick | 6cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x320f…176cbacked Yes | 0c | 8,079$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 4c | 1,300$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.99 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 12c | 580$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.86 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 3c | 513.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 6c | 365.03$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.72 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3680…f087backed Yes | 11c | 326.43$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.89 | 244 | 32.8%80 W · 164 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 299.93$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.99 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 24c | 297.79$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.6 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 7c | 260.13$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.77 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 6c | 255.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 12c | 242.89$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.54 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ddb…3fa9backed Yes | 7c | 200$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 313 | 19.2%60 W · 253 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb06…e32bbacked Yes | 10c | 199.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd98d…1179backed Yes | 15c | 164.01$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.92 | 232 | 31%72 W · 160 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 9c | 145.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 14c | 144$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.22 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 15c | 125.31$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.61 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 250 | 29.2%73 W · 177 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 13c | 98.57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 328 | 18.3%60 W · 268 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 75c | 97.87$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.38 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 69c | 90.24$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.75 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a19…1e2ebacked No | 75c | 70$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 417 | 67.9%283 W · 134 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a75…e7d4backed Yes | 31c | 61.74$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.37 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3111…76f8backed Yes | 26c | 46.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 24cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe03a…439fbacked Yes | 30c | 39.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 189 | 10.6%20 W · 169 L | -87.5wins | -0.46per pick | 57cpaid | -84%equal weight | 5-0.41 edge/pick |
| 0x55d3…8f8ebacked Yes | 42c | 35.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…23d9backed No | 72c | 34$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.52 | 327 | 60.6%198 W · 129 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 74c | 32.68$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.52 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1726…1ad4backed No | 80c | 28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.61 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc0eb…3c9cbacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03d0…d647backed No | 78c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.19 | 103 | 52.4%54 W · 49 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70c6…8c6dbacked No | 77c | 16.21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.73 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 73c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 46-47°F on March 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 35°F or below on March 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 50°F or higher on March 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 36-37°F on March 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 38-39°F on March 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 40-41°F on March 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 42-43°F on March 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 44-45°F on March 5?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 48-49°F on March 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.