MLB · resolved market
Houston Astros vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7f794faa7ba1fe2bd4c484305f6e0996af8b545ef84dc3b08fc230b3ee02f25c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,327
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,821
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,327 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2dc1…b33cbacked Under | 56c | 7,555$4,231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,230.51 | 260 | 56.9%148 W · 112 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 44c | 6,486$2,851 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,634.67 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x198f…c419backed Over | 60c | 2,490$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$990.45 | 115 | 40%46 W · 69 L | -7.1wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Under | 40c | 1,500$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 613 | 52.5%322 W · 291 L | +29.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 56c | 1,042$587 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$455.21 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 44c | 937.94$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413.07 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 44c | 931.63$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414.48 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 46c | 835.82$387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$448.35 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Over | 30c | 803.69$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$560.55 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 45c | 559.03$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.57 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Over | 55c | 556$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.2 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Under | 43c | 439.93$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.48 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b49…0397backed Under | 45c | 330.83$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.87 | 274 | 51.8%142 W · 132 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f19…b9ffbacked Under | 43c | 320$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.6 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 44c | 291.05$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.27 | 1,345 | 47.7%642 W · 703 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 47c | 227$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.86 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 45c | 218.11$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.15 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 47c | 190.52$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.03 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x068c…582ebacked Over | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 384 | 55.2%212 W · 172 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 41c | 166.82$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.15 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Over | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.33 | 393 | 44.3%174 W · 219 L | -22.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca20…7b68backed Under | 56c | 92.72$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.18 | 371 | 43.9%163 W · 208 L | -21.4wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a7d…695fbacked Over | 55c | 72.73$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.73 | 127 | 53.5%68 W · 59 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x504a…a236backed Over | 55c | 72.73$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.73 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…485bbacked Over | 55c | 70.84$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.88 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4aaa…9f09backed Under | 72c | 63$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.63 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ad8…5004backed Over | 59c | 60.74$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.9 | 188 | 55.3%104 W · 84 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddc…e874backed Over | 48c | 59.61$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.91 | 194 | 42.3%82 W · 112 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Under | 44c | 56.81$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 43c | 56.34$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.19 | 2,944 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,543 L | +4.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 29c | 54.94$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.09 | 290 | 47.6%138 W · 152 L | -11.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…012abacked Over | 58c | 51.72$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.72 | 1,197 | 53.9%645 W · 552 L | +42.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 54c | 51.66$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.61 | 4,477 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,291 L | -47.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f5…bb11backed Over | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 559 | 53.1%297 W · 262 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9825…9ffcbacked Over | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 184 | 44%81 W · 103 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Under | 44c | 45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 213 | 53.5%114 W · 99 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3169…6dccbacked Over | 51c | 44.64$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.92 | 150 | 45.3%68 W · 82 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b46…fd16backed Over | 59c | 42.37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.37 | 65 | 56.9%37 W · 28 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebc9…beb1backed Over | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb188…8be3backed Over | 48c | 36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.67 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Under | 43c | 28.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ad…5097backed Over | 50c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.55 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 58c | 20.29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.52 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Over | 58c | 18.97$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 361 | 57.9%209 W · 152 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 79c | 16.3$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Houston Astros vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5this page
- Houston Astros vs. Baltimore OriolesBaltimore Orioles won
- Houston Astros vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 13.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 5.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 6.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 7.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.