TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Houston Astros vs. Baltimore Orioles

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Baltimore Oriolesof Houston Astros, Baltimore Orioles
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$312,283
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$326,034

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $312,283 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 181 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf641…7b6fbacked Houston Astros0c131,994$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.9968769.6%478 W · 209 L+60.4wins+0.09per pick61cpaid+12.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc807…c12bbacked Baltimore Orioles55c21,757$11,967 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,790.8250153.5%268 W · 233 L+8.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Houston Astros35c15,312$5,284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,284.041,38148.1%664 W · 717 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-13.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Houston Astros45c15,169$6,826 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,826.314,55349.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L-9.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Baltimore Orioles54c13,550$7,317 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,2331,66050.1%832 W · 828 L-22.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Houston Astros43c13,188$5,666 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,665.5610,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc314…6a46backed Houston Astros0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106425%16 W · 48 L+3.1wins+0.05per pick20cpaid+31%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0e64…336dbacked Baltimore Orioles53c10,000$5,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,699.9844945.4%204 W · 245 L-13.9wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2ca1…ddcdbacked Baltimore Orioles55c9,900$5,445 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,4559035.6%32 W · 58 L-3.6wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-14.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd4da…3175backed Houston Astros47c9,452$4,442 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,442.4911256.3%63 W · 49 L+6.8wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+15%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5482…b6eebacked Houston Astros0c7,933$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.838762.9%25 W · 851 L+5.5wins+0.01per pick2cpaid+19.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9495…9a27backed Baltimore Orioles58c7,098$4,118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,979.572,29348.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L-24.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad63…d66fbacked Baltimore Orioles55c6,660$3,639 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,020.751070%7 W · 3 L+1.8wins+0.18per pick52cpaid+30.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Houston Astros36c4,501$1,643 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,642.652,38943.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L-25.4wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed Houston Astros45c3,856$1,735 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,734.833,45351.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L+58.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6643…0109backed Houston Astros5c3,541$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.6325440.6%103 W · 151 L-8.9wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-7.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Houston Astros32c3,070$997 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$997.2912,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf819…d410backed Houston Astros45c2,200$990 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9903857.9%22 W · 16 L+3.1wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+14.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe72f…b869backed Houston Astros47c2,177$1,023 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,023.1810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Houston Astros36c2,044$730 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$730.151,45642.7%622 W · 834 L-39.7wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-24.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc463…9a2fbacked Houston Astros46c2,000$920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92033852.7%178 W · 160 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Houston Astros45c1,963$893 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$893.231,49958.9%883 W · 616 L+75.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid-2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1df2…89a0backed Baltimore Orioles79c1,791$1,407 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$383.221,11349%545 W · 568 L+22.1wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-11%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b15…fa73backed Baltimore Orioles61c1,459$893 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$566.3733864.2%217 W · 121 L+23.1wins+0.07per pick57cpaid+11.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Houston Astros44c1,277$556 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$555.929,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Houston Astros36c1,275$457 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$456.946,11655.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L+344.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3354…5042backed Baltimore Orioles56c1,245$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$545.4720350.2%102 W · 101 L-8.8wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6b44…be1ebacked Baltimore Orioles53c1,223$648 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$574.615950.8%30 W · 29 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+8.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0ac…4ec7backed Houston Astros27c1,196$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3201,17329%340 W · 833 L-0.3wins0.00per pick29cpaid-5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x986c…3180backed Houston Astros45c1,154$519 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$519.351547%242 W · 273 L+1.6wins0.00per pick47cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd3df…82fabacked Baltimore Orioles60c1,153$689 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$464.0648850.2%245 W · 243 L+5.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-6.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1da3…2f94backed Baltimore Orioles53c943.4$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$443.49354.8%51 W · 42 L+3.1wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc521…b46abacked Baltimore Orioles55c902.96$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$402.967948.1%38 W · 41 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d9a…05e6backed Houston Astros40c879.63$348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$347.7339640.9%162 W · 234 L-25.4wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-31.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Houston Astros47c868$408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$407.961,34547.7%642 W · 703 L+10.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed Houston Astros46c761.84$354 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$354.121,01048.1%486 W · 524 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x26d6…caccbacked Houston Astros33c731.11$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.381,14043%490 W · 650 L-37.2wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-25.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x18a4…3a31backed Baltimore Orioles60c717.43$428 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$289.242,14750.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L+27.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x55d8…b384backed Houston Astros45c673.36$303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303.0157744.7%258 W · 319 L-6.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x783b…dc4cbacked Houston Astros41c661.3$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26860941.4%252 W · 357 L-22.4wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-25.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Baltimore Orioles54c600.15$325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$275.536,89950.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L-7.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf37…993fbacked Houston Astros43c563.44$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.727247.2%34 W · 38 L+3.6wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xee0b…e9f4backed Houston Astros45c500$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2254757.4%27 W · 20 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+5.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4259…77c1backed Houston Astros38c488.76$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.732,24357.6%1,293 W · 950 L+37.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x851c…dafdbacked Houston Astros3c454.55$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154528.9%13 W · 32 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-20.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc1b5…c8f8backed Baltimore Orioles56c446.43$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.431,70849.9%852 W · 856 L-17.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Houston Astros35c444.55$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.0375244%331 W · 421 L-10.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ffb…e82abacked Houston Astros28c400$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1127143.7%31 W · 40 L+3.3wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+0.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xba14…b792backed Houston Astros46c384$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.6444643.3%193 W · 253 L+11.0wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd51b…90a8backed Houston Astros47c383$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.0117152.6%90 W · 81 L-7.0wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-7.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x84bb…25d3backed Houston Astros24c359.62$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.3112846.1%59 W · 69 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdded…13a2backed Baltimore Orioles56c344.14$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.4220258.4%118 W · 84 L+7.3wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x14e4…eabbbacked Houston Astros18c300$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5450949.5%252 W · 257 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f6a…9888backed Baltimore Orioles70c296$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.0378649.1%386 W · 400 L+3.7wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x424e…263bbacked Baltimore Orioles55c279.99$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1261,76951.6%912 W · 857 L+16.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Houston Astros34c270.3$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.2485135.8%305 W · 546 L-23.3wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-25.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf985…bb31backed Baltimore Orioles56c261.61$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.111353.8%7 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf46b…c51dbacked Houston Astros7c256.54$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.2252449%257 W · 267 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d7f…86d2backed Houston Astros12c240$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.850337.2%187 W · 316 L-42.3wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-28.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x31db…784abacked Baltimore Orioles53c240$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0aaf…c81ebacked Houston Astros48c232$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.3610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd17a…0373backed Baltimore Orioles55c225$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.2577050.5%389 W · 381 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad88…3c1ebacked Houston Astros45c220$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9948354.7%264 W · 219 L+20.8wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa44d…edf1backed Houston Astros47c212.77$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002055%11 W · 9 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb56…7edabacked Baltimore Orioles65c209.96$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.511090%9 W · 1 L+2.5wins+0.25per pick65cpaid+41.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x89c9…9534backed Baltimore Orioles56c207$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.0891749.9%458 W · 459 L-3.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x852f…3aaebacked Houston Astros47c207$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.297341.1%30 W · 43 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick37cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x04ec…8ac9backed Houston Astros46c206$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.7668846.8%322 W · 366 L+9.1wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe292…84b8backed Houston Astros47c204.99$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.351,40243.1%604 W · 798 L+4.7wins0.00per pick43cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd727…eccebacked Houston Astros46c200$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$923,29146.2%1,521 W · 1,770 L+20.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x976a…eee6backed Baltimore Orioles53c200$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9414555.9%81 W · 64 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4706…286ebacked Houston Astros47c199.99$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9435446%163 W · 191 L-9.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8508…c22fbacked Baltimore Orioles56c196.43$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.431,00052.4%524 W · 476 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d9e…e0e3backed Baltimore Orioles80c187$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.241,07558.3%627 W · 448 L-21.3wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb07e…0df5backed Houston Astros42c185.5$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.6599744.1%440 W · 557 L-38.0wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-10.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc313…e128backed Houston Astros46c180$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8337941.2%156 W · 223 L+10.1wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-0.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x52e3…3337backed Baltimore Orioles56c178.56$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.5743253.9%233 W · 199 L+12.0wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2ea0…865dbacked Baltimore Orioles53c175.47$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.4716952.1%88 W · 81 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x15cc…bfaabacked Houston Astros29c172.41$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505343.4%23 W · 30 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+11.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x56d2…70a3backed Baltimore Orioles60c165.85$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.731145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick49cpaid+8.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd96a…d8cebacked Houston Astros17c152.41$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.5633515.5%52 W · 283 L-12.7wins-0.04per pick19cpaid-32.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3368…4f90backed Houston Astros42c148.72$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$624936.7%18 W · 31 L-5.0wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-25.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3d0a…07c7backed Houston Astros40c137.5$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$553852.6%20 W · 18 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe530…a2cabacked Houston Astros46c130$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.841549.2%204 W · 211 L+22.2wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+13.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0b13…bfdabacked Houston Astros40c125$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502948.3%14 W · 15 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-11.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5d05…f729backed Houston Astros45c121.71$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.7220044.5%89 W · 111 L-8.6wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-5.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9fbd…3d15backed Houston Astros46c121.03$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.5418648.4%90 W · 96 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ec2…bd08backed Houston Astros42c120.24$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.51,13742.6%484 W · 653 L+10.0wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc278…a116backed Houston Astros47c118.73$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.984140.2%338 W · 503 L-3.0wins0.00per pick41cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf9b3…3a80backed Houston Astros45c117.78$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$531662.5%10 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+16.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x14de…414ebacked Houston Astros45c113.33$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5116056.9%91 W · 69 L-0.1wins0.00per pick57cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb51…733cbacked Houston Astros45c111.11$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5026148.3%126 W · 135 L-0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca20…7b68backed Houston Astros36c110.62$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.3337143.9%163 W · 208 L-21.4wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-20.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd3e7…bf64backed Houston Astros27c110$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.770744.7%316 W · 391 L-22.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-6.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5bda…17a8backed Houston Astros46c100$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$461,75350.8%890 W · 863 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd610…4c9abacked Houston Astros46c100$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$462,26145.4%1,026 W · 1,235 L+57.4wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbc31…971fbacked Baltimore Orioles54c100$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4632850.3%165 W · 163 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb107…a3f8backed Houston Astros45c100$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$452650%13 W · 13 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-8.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x55af…6a1bbacked Houston Astros47c100$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4736345.7%166 W · 197 L+8.6wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xda74…2dd7backed Houston Astros47c100$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$471,27743.1%550 W · 727 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.