MLB · resolved market
Houston Astros vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x12818b365aaa41ba77fdccb2ecf2caffbd634239bb81f62df135678602642a19
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,796
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,913
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,796 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x18a6…c8d3backed Under | 56c | 3,728$2,071 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,070.68 | 93 | 50.5%47 W · 46 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x198f…c419backed Under | 55c | 3,199$1,775 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,774.71 | 115 | 40%46 W · 69 L | -7.1wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x78b0…9f1abacked Over | 45c | 2,564$1,156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,408.39 | 390 | 47.4%185 W · 205 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 47c | 2,468$1,172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,296.75 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Over | 44c | 2,000$890 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,110 | 672 | 50.1%337 W · 335 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc463…9a2fbacked Under | 55c | 2,000$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,099.98 | 338 | 52.7%178 W · 160 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 58c | 1,770$1,025 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,024.92 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Over | 44c | 1,200$528 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$672 | 737 | 48.4%357 W · 380 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 55c | 1,100$605 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$605.39 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf009…43d0backed Over | 44c | 1,091$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$610.91 | 110 | 51.8%57 W · 53 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecee…2120backed Over | 44c | 1,068$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$598.18 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x329c…2485backed Over | 44c | 1,000$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$560 | 92 | 62%57 W · 35 L | +8.9wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4f2d…318bbacked Under | 3c | 892.42$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.35 | 83 | 4.8%4 W · 79 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 45c | 843.37$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$466.03 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 55c | 700.77$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.41 | 1,345 | 47.7%642 W · 703 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Over | 44c | 529.48$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.48 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 45c | 472.39$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.81 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 11c | 444.94$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 22c | 401$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Under | 55c | 234.78$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.14 | 1,010 | 48.1%486 W · 524 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5016…ada1backed Over | 44c | 227.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.68 | 356 | 50.6%180 W · 176 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0554…79b9backed Under | 55c | 221.77$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad88…3c1ebacked Over | 47c | 220$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.6 | 483 | 54.7%264 W · 219 L | +20.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Under | 53c | 220$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.6 | 568 | 51.4%292 W · 276 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 44c | 206.04$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.91 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc10d…e679backed Under | 56c | 180.36$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…2928backed Over | 46c | 173.97$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.94 | 496 | 49.8%247 W · 249 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…485bbacked Over | 45c | 152.22$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.72 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…f729backed Under | 52c | 123.68$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.66 | 200 | 44.5%89 W · 111 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Under | 52c | 118.07$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.4 | 89 | 48.3%43 W · 46 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef2…fdb6backed Under | 54c | 100.91$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.49 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -4.1wins | -0.32per pick | 55cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Over | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe062…4907backed Under | 54c | 92.96$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.2 | 134 | 52.2%70 W · 64 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad2…71f8backed Under | 54c | 90.92$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.1 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -3.8wins | -0.17per pick | 49cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0cef…9d08backed Under | 54c | 74.07$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Over | 45c | 70$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2784…e60abacked Over | 46c | 63.65$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.37 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…eecabacked Under | 56c | 61.88$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.65 | 222 | 48.6%108 W · 114 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8968…c3c1backed Over | 45c | 56.87$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.43 | 228 | 49.6%113 W · 115 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 56c | 54.87$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.73 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00f7…4476backed Over | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 83 | 60.2%50 W · 33 L | +10.3wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +25%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Under | 54c | 49$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.46 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…0073backed Under | 57c | 45.69$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 59 | 39%23 W · 36 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 34c | 42.53$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.87 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Over | 45c | 40.01$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x239d…daebbacked Under | 55c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 303 | 50.8%154 W · 149 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f7…43fdbacked Under | 65c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +18%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf92c…87f7backed Under | 52c | 37.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.64 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a0e…b0babacked Under | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -6.1wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Under | 54c | 37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 213 | 53.5%114 W · 99 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb684…343cbacked Under | 55c | 36.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.19 | 143 | 53.1%76 W · 67 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 55c | 36.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.04 | 4,477 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,291 L | -47.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffc9…bf01backed Under | 55c | 35.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 191 | 55.5%106 W · 85 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Under | 52c | 35.77$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 674 | 53%357 W · 317 L | +28.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ad…5097backed Over | 35c | 35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.85 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5440…2f1ebacked Over | 47c | 34.45$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.26 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Under | 50c | 33.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 295 | 47.1%139 W · 156 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6b…8ffabacked Under | 53c | 33.22$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.63 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x088d…3516backed Over | 44c | 33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.48 | 19 | 84.2%16 W · 3 L | +6.6wins | +0.35per pick | 49cpaid | +73.8%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x35d1…1f70backed Under | 53c | 30.81$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.33 | 225 | 54.7%123 W · 102 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Under | 55c | 29.91$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb17c…e5c2backed Under | 54c | 28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cd…1e2bbacked Over | 50c | 27.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 1,057 | 50.2%531 W · 526 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda6b…2623backed Under | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bbd…98f2backed Over | 46c | 26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 187 | 51.3%96 W · 91 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…d080backed Over | 45c | 24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 142 | 45.8%65 W · 77 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Under | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 69 | 56.5%39 W · 30 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Houston Astros vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5this page
- Houston Astros vs. Baltimore OriolesBaltimore Orioles won
- Houston Astros vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 13.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 5.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 6.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 7.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.