MLB · resolved market
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x925fcc9502e993d4687a93e4e3f7b806b1d0bbf0570ab403d9d56032fd9fbdf0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Baltimore Oriolesof Baltimore Orioles, Houston Astros
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,616
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,789
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,616 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc807…c12bbacked Baltimore Orioles | 37c | 4,327$1,607 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,720.14 | 501 | 53.5%268 W · 233 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Baltimore Orioles | 57c | 3,995$2,290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,704.48 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Houston Astros | 43c | 2,123$903 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$903.13 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b49…0397backed Houston Astros | 63c | 2,000$1,260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,260 | 274 | 51.8%142 W · 132 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc463…9a2fbacked Houston Astros | 63c | 2,000$1,260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,259.96 | 338 | 52.7%178 W · 160 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Houston Astros | 62c | 1,694$1,051 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,050.69 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Houston Astros | 61c | 1,326$806 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$805.89 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Houston Astros | 48c | 1,195$569 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$569.49 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b15…fa73backed Baltimore Orioles | 60c | 1,072$639 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432.52 | 338 | 64.2%217 W · 121 L | +23.1wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Houston Astros | 44c | 1,046$458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$457.87 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Houston Astros | 54c | 900.86$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$487.51 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Houston Astros | 63c | 437.37$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.54 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed Baltimore Orioles | 36c | 400$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256 | 707 | 44.7%316 W · 391 L | -22.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Houston Astros | 62c | 388.26$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.81 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Baltimore Orioles | 40c | 375$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Baltimore Orioles | 38c | 286.01$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.54 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34f9…ebf6backed Baltimore Orioles | 37c | 285$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.55 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Baltimore Orioles | 37c | 270.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.27 | 569 | 46.9%267 W · 302 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Houston Astros | 62c | 270$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.8 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Houston Astros | 60c | 266$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.6 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Baltimore Orioles | 38c | 231$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.22 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Houston Astros | 61c | 220.61$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.57 | 672 | 50.1%337 W · 335 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2635…c47dbacked Houston Astros | 51c | 210$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.1 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -32%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Baltimore Orioles | 67c | 204.41$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.56 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Baltimore Orioles | 62c | 172.19$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.82 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad88…3c1ebacked Houston Astros | 62c | 160$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.2 | 483 | 54.7%264 W · 219 L | +20.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Houston Astros | 63c | 142.27$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.64 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0570…5200backed Baltimore Orioles | 67c | 139.01$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.17 | 91 | 52.7%48 W · 43 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked Baltimore Orioles | 67c | 112.57$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.09 | 1,149 | 48.9%562 W · 587 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Houston Astros | 43c | 108.47$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.44 | 1,722 | 50.3%867 W · 855 L | +55.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Houston Astros | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Baltimore Orioles | 58c | 85.51$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.52 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Houston Astros | 64c | 79.99$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.19 | 1,345 | 47.7%642 W · 703 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdded…13a2backed Baltimore Orioles | 64c | 72.66$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 202 | 58.4%118 W · 84 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Baltimore Orioles | 37c | 70$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.1 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f50…069bbacked Baltimore Orioles | 37c | 70$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.1 | 163 | 45.4%74 W · 89 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3169…6dccbacked Baltimore Orioles | 44c | 64.57$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.16 | 150 | 45.3%68 W · 82 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…2632backed Houston Astros | 37c | 64.26$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.89 | 245 | 54.7%134 W · 111 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Baltimore Orioles | 38c | 64$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.68 | 716 | 50.7%363 W · 353 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Baltimore Orioles | 37c | 44.58$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.15 | 4,477 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,291 L | -47.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ad…5097backed Houston Astros | 57c | 43$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.45 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Houston Astros | 47c | 34.91$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.42 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Baltimore Orioles | 71c | 32.81$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.56 | 5,126 | 54.7%2,804 W · 2,322 L | +231.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2827…64f6backed Baltimore Orioles | 38c | 31.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.35 | 207 | 64.7%134 W · 73 L | +21.2wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x36aa…a683backed Baltimore Orioles | 39c | 31.04$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.93 | 443 | 47.9%212 W · 231 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8af3…bfa1backed Houston Astros | 67c | 30.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.31 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba4…8eb0backed Houston Astros | 40c | 30.21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -51%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Houston Astros | 60c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7479…e171backed Baltimore Orioles | 49c | 25.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.85 | 169 | 47.3%80 W · 89 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Houston Astros | 62c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 297 | 52.5%156 W · 141 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cb…3636backed Baltimore Orioles | 67c | 18.21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.01 | 84 | 60.7%51 W · 33 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7198…4213backed Houston Astros | 62c | 17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)this page
- Houston Astros vs. Baltimore OriolesBaltimore Orioles won
- Houston Astros vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 13.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 5.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 6.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 7.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.