Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7f92a1b4134a85defb7acd90452c80fe3da5b600d610273b4c06b7723603251c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,378
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,115
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,378 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xed30…87b1backed Yes | 50c | 1,750$867 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$866.57 | 185 | 49.7%92 W · 93 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked No | 46c | 875.03$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$475.03 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked Yes | 9c | 489.61$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.06 | 413 | 31%128 W · 285 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 14c | 322.23$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.03 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 11c | 235.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.89 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 9c | 202.36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.81 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked No | 49c | 200$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71d9…19f8backed Yes | 24c | 158.29$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.41 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 7c | 157.17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 47c | 157.1$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.55 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 47c | 145.95$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.98 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 64c | 132.35$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.63 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 43c | 128.86$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.59 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e72…bd5dbacked Yes | 63c | 124.56$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.77 | 60 | 65%39 W · 21 L | +8.1wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6f10…563bbacked Yes | 11c | 116$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 88 | 35.2%31 W · 57 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 17c | 113.15$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 25c | 111.3$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…8834backed Yes | 71c | 108.05$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.55 | 125 | 47.2%59 W · 66 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 45c | 107.47$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.78 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfea5…ee06backed Yes | 37c | 105.56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 270 | 29.3%79 W · 191 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2583…261abacked Yes | 52c | 105.36$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 67cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 49c | 95.86$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.07 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 46c | 85.53$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.91 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 52c | 69$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.39 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 50c | 62$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.25 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90cc…ae52backed Yes | 34c | 53.08$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00ad…4171backed Yes | 80c | 52.02$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.5 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 55c | 50.17$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.59 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 44c | 49.93$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.19 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 68c | 45$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.42 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f5…72bcbacked Yes | 56c | 42.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.07 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.28per pick | 50cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 68c | 40.28$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.89 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x260b…aa9ebacked Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.23per pick | 45cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb8…0d00backed Yes | 76c | 38.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 206 | 62.1%128 W · 78 L | -14.0wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb537…14ccbacked No | 62c | 37.96$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.42 | 414 | 60.1%249 W · 165 L | -21.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 48c | 35.72$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 47c | 35$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.45 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80e1…47a8backed No | 74c | 34.07$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 242 | 62.4%151 W · 91 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 42c | 33.81$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.61 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 37c | 32.47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 37c | 30.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae3…8262backed No | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 40c | 29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7615…308abacked No | 63c | 28.3$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.59 | 184 | 41.3%76 W · 108 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 70c | 21.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa03e…2035backed Yes | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…813abacked Yes | 55c | 18.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x188a…9fafbacked No | 72c | 17.06$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.77 | 196 | 62.2%122 W · 74 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8bf…6cefbacked No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 64cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.