Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2b1aff9b81519adb3712e2fc8fd981797fd97e441a1c5c01aae776f82f4e43c1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,076
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,450
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,076 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xed30…87b1backed Yes | 69c | 2,745$1,893 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$851.36 | 185 | 49.7%92 W · 93 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa94…3601backed No | 12c | 1,109$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.96 | 51 | 25.5%13 W · 38 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 33c | 423.94$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.84 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 17c | 270.26$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.82 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 67c | 250$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.5 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb74…9f08backed No | 15c | 229.16$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 11c | 192.77$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.97 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5484…84e8backed No | 64c | 178.02$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.66 | 111 | 69.4%77 W · 34 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 67c | 157.1$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.97 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 66c | 156$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.24 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 70c | 153.48$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.88 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 32c | 143.95$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.03 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 49c | 126.99$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.09 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 34c | 125.03$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.52 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 33c | 118.81$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.44 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71d9…19f8backed Yes | 33c | 116.65$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.17 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 31c | 112$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.15 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 69c | 106.89$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.18 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed Yes | 34c | 101.52$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 26c | 100.27$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.26 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed No | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 34c | 99.65$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.39 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 37c | 95.86$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.2 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 39c | 95$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.24 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 66c | 95$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.05 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 25c | 93.43$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.48 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfea5…ee06backed Yes | 33c | 90.9$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.91 | 270 | 29.3%79 W · 191 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 67c | 89.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.29 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54a0…4134backed Yes | 34c | 89.35$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.35 | 148 | 23%34 W · 114 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -26%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 67c | 87.16$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.29 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec0a…71dabacked Yes | 31c | 78.58$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.61 | 113 | 43.4%49 W · 64 L | -6.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 70c | 77.55$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 37c | 69.02$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.54 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c84…3f63backed Yes | 32c | 62.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.76 | 138 | 39.1%54 W · 84 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 68c | 54.41$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 33c | 50.63$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.83 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked No | 68c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 34c | 49.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.99 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 40c | 46.76$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.24 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 71c | 45.14$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 65c | 44.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.19 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 71c | 42.34$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.89 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…b501backed Yes | 30c | 37.29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.1 | 605 | 19.7%119 W · 486 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 34c | 35.29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.29 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 30c | 34.37$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.05 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 33c | 32.8$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.11 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 68c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 60c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d3…118ebacked Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 208 | 42.8%89 W · 119 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f5…72bcbacked No | 44c | 28.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.28per pick | 50cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 61c | 27.17$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.57 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 79c | 25.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 66c | 21.3$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6871…7cb8backed Yes | 63c | 21.14$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 79 | 53.2%42 W · 37 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea12…993bbacked No | 64c | 15.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | -9.2wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd615…ae32backed Yes | 69c | 15.42$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.76 | 339 | 62.8%213 W · 126 L | +40.8wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.