World Politics · resolved market
Will Rebecca Shepherd finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x80014692fb03c9f46375175b2bef6420836aec206764e63bf4ca16d0c01455bb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $431,123
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $460,302
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $431,123 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x04b5…e869backed Yes | 3c | 64,926$2,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 6c | 32,742$1,943 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,942.85 | 141 | 26.2%37 W · 104 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5504…6047backed Yes | 8c | 26,327$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb3f…9d8dbacked Yes | 2c | 25,085$577 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$577.23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe67…9fcfbacked Yes | 4c | 22,500$870 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$870 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95eb…274ebacked Yes | 2c | 15,679$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.28 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa652…a74bbacked Yes | 3c | 15,593$457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$457.4 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb9…4b1bbacked Yes | 4c | 12,618$536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$535.79 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa42…a41cbacked Yes | 2c | 12,542$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.03 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3680…a456backed Yes | 1c | 11,700$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc60d…2fe5backed Yes | 3c | 10,031$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4193…8cefbacked Yes | 2c | 9,257$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2ab…2db7backed Yes | 4c | 9,133$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18e1…3584backed Yes | 2c | 7,826$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd4f…6a22backed Yes | 4c | 7,529$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c1…8c6bbacked Yes | 2c | 6,930$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.82 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabac…0ce2backed Yes | 2c | 6,780$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe45f…9fd1backed Yes | 2c | 6,761$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec8…d7c6backed Yes | 2c | 5,520$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd9…1bbabacked Yes | 5c | 5,207$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.08 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c75…6094backed Yes | 1c | 5,000$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf636…b088backed Yes | 14c | 4,721$645 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$644.7 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4842…41a0backed Yes | 4c | 4,448$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x752c…84b1backed Yes | 1c | 4,400$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1eac…3ebebacked Yes | 2c | 4,397$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c03…7790backed Yes | 2c | 3,273$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09fe…e585backed Yes | 1c | 2,500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec38…43ccbacked Yes | 4c | 2,268$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffea…1c5fbacked Yes | 6c | 2,088$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.31 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a36…ab93backed Yes | 6c | 1,875$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc227…921dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,593$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.03 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x360a…f35abacked Yes | 2c | 1,587$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe5…b65dbacked Yes | 7c | 1,511$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc17…289abacked Yes | 2c | 1,500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.39 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +5.2wins | +0.10per pick | 27cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x09bb…f8b1backed Yes | 4c | 1,397$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 85 | 55.3%47 W · 38 L | +6.6wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 1,389$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.74 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a8a…2d31backed Yes | 1c | 1,373$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3675…f382backed Yes | 2c | 1,344$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.35 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5399…2b4fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,301$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d7…f136backed Yes | 2c | 1,244$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.08 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cf7…575cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,230$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.93 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97f3…3f91backed Yes | 4c | 1,138$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6089…96eebacked Yes | 1c | 1,117$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf769…0114backed Yes | 3c | 1,087$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.44 | 53 | 30.2%16 W · 37 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c3f…7320backed Yes | 1c | 1,077$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -11%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9158…20c6backed Yes | 1c | 1,075$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd0f…5aabbacked Yes | 17c | 1,057$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.35 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8eed…5a1cbacked Yes | 4c | 1,051$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe630…76f9backed Yes | 5c | 1,021$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fda…6c62backed Yes | 3c | 1,018$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.32 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -26%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6a6…0dd2backed Yes | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad2f…f00fbacked Yes | 4c | 985.41$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9271…5b7cbacked Yes | 2c | 976.31$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde89…5231backed Yes | 5c | 888.27$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.27 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e7b…8767backed Yes | 5c | 802.33$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.29 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 75c | 754.21$562 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.94 | 106 | 46.2%49 W · 57 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6794…dd2cbacked Yes | 2c | 662.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 4c | 555.74$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.32 | 211 | 7.1%15 W · 196 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 5c | 470.94$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.93 | 254 | 3.5%9 W · 245 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 7c | 456$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.92 | 193 | 15.5%30 W · 163 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x115c…9c48backed Yes | 3c | 428.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd720…cdbebacked Yes | 14c | 389.78$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8baf…29e8backed Yes | 3c | 312.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15f6…e3f8backed Yes | 7c | 311.33$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.73 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c58…13b9backed Yes | 15c | 180$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.75 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeecc…4620backed Yes | 9c | 176.56$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.89 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd76…77bdbacked No | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.7 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Rebecca Shepherd finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election?this page
- Will Andy Burnham finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election?No won
- Will Robert Kenyon finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.