Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8019078b39cbf19c78034ac0cf678988eef06a0253b6f63302f64d34158072cf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,627
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,168
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,627 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 6c | 2,240$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.85 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1546…778bbacked Yes | 10c | 1,304$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.15 | 354 | 29.9%106 W · 248 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x937b…bfabbacked No | 76c | 1,250$944 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.69 | 20 | 90%18 W · 2 L | +4.6wins | +0.23per pick | 67cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 2c | 771.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8a…bdedbacked No | 73c | 420.83$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.23 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 7c | 393.79$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.67 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d30…91d6backed Yes | 31c | 380.26$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.88 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 13c | 337.88$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.01 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes | 3c | 329.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 405 | 25.2%102 W · 303 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 5c | 287$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.9 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 32c | 188.39$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.57 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b4e…d839backed Yes | 33c | 148.91$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.43 | 227 | 28.6%65 W · 162 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa30f…4da6backed Yes | 35c | 132$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 211 | 32.2%68 W · 143 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 46c | 118.31$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.71 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 65c | 110$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 70c | 109$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.91 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83cd…e218backed Yes | 72c | 108.47$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 94 | 48.9%46 W · 48 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 60c | 106$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.07 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 33c | 102.43$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.45 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 48c | 100.28$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.17 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ee…9836backed No | 71c | 99.98$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.6 | 76 | 51.3%39 W · 37 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…704cbacked Yes | 33c | 99.55$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.96 | 321 | 32.7%105 W · 216 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 37c | 99.28$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 69c | 70$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.7 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 70c | 65$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.25 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 39c | 51.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.38 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 481 | 49.5%238 W · 243 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 52c | 46.03$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.97 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 68c | 45$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.34 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 23c | 43.91$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.62 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d39…099abacked No | 69c | 42.86$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.21 | 297 | 51.9%154 W · 143 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b18…2639backed Yes | 32c | 39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 438 | 42%184 W · 254 L | -14.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb062…ed14backed No | 65c | 38.73$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.73 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 66c | 37.88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 66c | 33.19$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.19 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 39c | 33.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed No | 67c | 32.93$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.93 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5478…a9f8backed No | 59c | 31.37$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.85 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15b7…4cdebacked No | 42c | 31.19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.12 | 86 | 61.6%53 W · 33 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3c…ddd0backed No | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 466 | 67.6%315 W · 151 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +334.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x988e…d0d0backed No | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 113 | 69.9%79 W · 34 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 69c | 28.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.98 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 70c | 24.64$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.29 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked No | 67c | 20.89$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.91 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.87 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 68c | 16.9$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.41 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb537…14ccbacked No | 68c | 14.71$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.71 | 414 | 60.1%249 W · 165 L | -21.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…ff15backed No | 68c | 14.71$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.71 | 269 | 58.4%157 W · 112 L | -16.9wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x59ad…0cf2backed No | 73c | 14.01$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 67 | 61.2%41 W · 26 L | -7.0wins | -0.10per pick | 72cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C or below on June 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 7?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on June 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C or higher on June 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.