Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xada8b9ef934ec5937f040309468b0bab1f98ba199c19e63cc4c319b6fa87b884
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,171
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,557
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,171 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 31c | 320.17$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.95 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d30…91d6backed Yes | 17c | 300$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.45 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b4e…d839backed Yes | 22c | 283.38$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.81 | 227 | 28.6%65 W · 162 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 8c | 256.51$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.97 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 29c | 229.11$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.32 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 54c | 215.4$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.15 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 23c | 170.21$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.19 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 44c | 139.27$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.88 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 26c | 119$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.69 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2065…548abacked Yes | 17c | 117.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.64 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 67c | 110$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.7 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 10c | 109.81$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.48 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 76c | 109$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.33 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 74c | 104$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.02 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64ff…e13ebacked Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +399.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x818b…1646backed Yes | 48c | 99.99$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 108 | 50.9%55 W · 53 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa30f…4da6backed Yes | 36c | 95.4$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.4 | 211 | 32.2%68 W · 143 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 29c | 90$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.22 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65b7…3798backed Yes | 23c | 88.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.57 | 91 | 48.4%44 W · 47 L | +11.5wins | +0.13per pick | 36cpaid | +59.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 49c | 83.87$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.44 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 78c | 83.66$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.23 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ee…9836backed No | 73c | 79.21$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.02 | 76 | 51.3%39 W · 37 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 59c | 71.78$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.49 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 72c | 66.98$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.24 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 76c | 61.61$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.98 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 27c | 59.94$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.37 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc878…a6f3backed Yes | 31c | 59.9$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.4 | 156 | 46.8%73 W · 83 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 76c | 58$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.33 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 42c | 51.44$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.84 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf93…5d2abacked No | 80c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 89 | 62.9%56 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb062…ed14backed No | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 71c | 45$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.85 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 49c | 42.89$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.7 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 72c | 33$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.85 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 66c | 31.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.11 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15b7…4cdebacked No | 55c | 26.44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 86 | 61.6%53 W · 33 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 76c | 22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.79 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 67c | 20.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7615…308abacked No | 70c | 17.21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 184 | 41.3%76 W · 108 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 66c | 16.47$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.59 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc44c…48a4backed No | 76c | 16.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | -4.2wins | -0.10per pick | 73cpaid | -13%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 66c | 15.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 77c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…ff15backed No | 76c | 13.16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 269 | 58.4%157 W · 112 L | -16.9wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc7…86dfbacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 80cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C or below on June 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on June 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C or higher on June 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.