TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Detroit Tigersof Pittsburgh Pirates, Detroit Tigers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,408
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,438

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,408 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x204f…5e14backed Pittsburgh Pirates7c705.14$50 inLost-$50.1612,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Pittsburgh Pirates32c166.25$53 inLost-$53.21,06348.2%512 W · 551 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb7d8…a577backed Pittsburgh Pirates33c137$45 inLost-$45.212857.1%16 W · 12 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Detroit Tigers67c127$85 inWon+$41.916,89950.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L-7.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c96…0a39backed Pittsburgh Pirates33c105.47$35 inLost-$3515352.3%80 W · 73 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Pittsburgh Pirates31c83$26 inLost-$25.7348339.8%192 W · 291 L+2.2wins0.00per pick39cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x49c5…3de7backed Detroit Tigers68c65$44 inWon+$20.6534149.3%168 W · 173 L-8.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x87f7…8f45backed Detroit Tigers69c61$42 inWon+$19.0846444.4%206 W · 258 L-18.2wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-16.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf766…9251backed Detroit Tigers68c44.25$30 inWon+$14.161,46463.5%929 W · 535 L-10.1wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Detroit Tigers69c40$28 inWon+$12.411,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8d0c…c90abacked Detroit Tigers68c30$20 inWon+$9.62,37649.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L+17.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b11…5375backed Detroit Tigers66c19.47$13 inWon+$6.621,77749.5%880 W · 897 L+25.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd9fe…db0dbacked Detroit Tigers69c18$12 inWon+$5.5858352.1%304 W · 279 L+13.7wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.