MLB · resolved market
Detroit Tigers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdce7cf33e0bcfad4bde5555c7a5acf4470305151e8942f60c7bbfc2477475e9a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,568
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,994
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,568 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x263c…b2aebacked Over | 58c | 9,302$5,395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,907.07 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -3.4wins | -0.22per pick | 56cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 42c | 6,634$2,786 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,786.22 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 73c | 1,131$828 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.01 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Over | 54c | 888$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.48 | 1,352 | 50.8%687 W · 665 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Under | 40c | 836.96$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.87 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Under | 42c | 761.2$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.7 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 34c | 700$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 28c | 629.83$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.87 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee4f…c0f0backed Under | 46c | 561.96$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.5 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 42c | 557.68$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.23 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28ef…ff5ebacked Over | 55c | 451.34$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.34 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Over | 58c | 395.52$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.12 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa61…7f3bbacked Over | 56c | 286.11$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.11 | 151 | 53%80 W · 71 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…056fbacked Under | 43c | 208.54$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.67 | 274 | 48.2%132 W · 142 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb428…74c8backed Under | 45c | 200$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 442 | 45.5%201 W · 241 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 42c | 200$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 44c | 182.18$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.28 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28e8…6080backed Under | 42c | 170.71$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.7 | 473 | 50.7%240 W · 233 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 43c | 146.07$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.17 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Under | 43c | 145.38$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.83 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Under | 42c | 138$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.96 | 546 | 42.5%232 W · 314 L | +7.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 45c | 122.24$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49c5…3de7backed Under | 43c | 121.08$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.38 | 341 | 49.3%168 W · 173 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88c5…4815backed Over | 72c | 117.25$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.26 | 319 | 57.4%183 W · 136 L | +23.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7a4e…d751backed Over | 58c | 86.19$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.2 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 42c | 65.79$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.87 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…8f45backed Under | 38c | 64$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.24 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…d138backed Under | 46c | 64$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.44 | 882 | 47.7%421 W · 461 L | +3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 45c | 63.69$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.46 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 33c | 62$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.54 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x07b4…6855backed Under | 33c | 58.82$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.41 | 141 | 49.6%70 W · 71 L | -7.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Over | 56c | 57.73$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.4 | 190 | 51.1%97 W · 93 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +21%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c52…99e1backed Over | 73c | 54.79$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.79 | 49 | 75.5%37 W · 12 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 71cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 66c | 48.19$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.24 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Over | 72c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c1e…befebacked Over | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 285 | 53%151 W · 134 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b18…dd26backed Under | 44c | 28.69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Over | 73c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 733 | 55.3%405 W · 328 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Over | 73c | 27.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 470 | 56.6%266 W · 204 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28a3…8620backed Over | 59c | 27.51$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 320 | 54.1%173 W · 147 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba5e…153bbacked Under | 44c | 23.43$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 115 | 50.4%58 W · 57 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed Over | 73c | 23.32$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 268 | 57.1%153 W · 115 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfeef…4b1fbacked Over | 73c | 22.22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 150 | 52.7%79 W · 71 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Detroit Tigers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5this page
- Detroit Tigers vs. Pittsburgh PiratesDetroit Tigers won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 10.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 11.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 12.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 14.5Under won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-2.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-3.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-4.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Will the game go to extra innings?: Detroit Tigers vs. Pittsburgh PiratesNo won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Detroit Tigers vs. Pittsburgh PiratesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.