Euroleague · resolved market
Euro Basket: Sweden vs Montenegro
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8021c4dd48494e4fe09d21dc2bb9e908a8a9691bb7774a1639d03285ab48f813
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Montenegroof Sweden, Montenegro
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Euroleagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,248
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,581
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,248 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Euroleague is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Euroleague | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2129…4222backed Sweden | 52c | 2,075$1,073 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,072.7 | 65 | 35.4%23 W · 42 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -17%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Montenegro | 51c | 1,750$887 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$862.41 | 63 | 38.1%24 W · 39 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d0…5c32backed Sweden | 35c | 1,001$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.58 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 23cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Montenegro | 53c | 948.62$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$448.8 | 92 | 55.4%51 W · 41 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ef…9e7abacked Sweden | 51c | 881.47$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.55 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d1…2b9ebacked Montenegro | 57c | 690.08$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.08 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3606…9bd2backed Montenegro | 53c | 660.38$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.38 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48e3…c148backed Montenegro | 49c | 600$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306 | 57 | 21.1%12 W · 45 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39ea…f75bbacked Montenegro | 53c | 566.04$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.04 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +79.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1e86…93c2backed Sweden | 47c | 500$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked Sweden | 44c | 495.23$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.57 | 57 | 24.6%14 W · 43 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cdc…7cddbacked Sweden | 51c | 392.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9375…1dbdbacked Sweden | 50c | 376.86$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad94…85b1backed Montenegro | 50c | 326$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc3…6b7fbacked Montenegro | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked Sweden | 53c | 280.81$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.22 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4835…8f59backed Sweden | 50c | 270$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 52 | 40.4%21 W · 31 L | -7.9wins | -0.15per pick | 56cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Sweden | 45c | 230$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -41%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36f8…4dc3backed Montenegro | 53c | 190.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.19 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa9…2491backed Sweden | 28c | 167.13$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.41 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ef…0b77backed Montenegro | 53c | 162$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.14 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6894…59d8backed Sweden | 49c | 137.89$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.57 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4279…05cabacked Sweden | 50c | 99.22$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d28…932abacked Montenegro | 50c | 86.36$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.89 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1a…7c47backed Sweden | 48c | 80$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb78d…1d48backed Sweden | 50c | 56$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1614…ec02backed Montenegro | 59c | 42.26$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.52 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb8…b6f5backed Montenegro | 66c | 37.88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Sweden | 34c | 37.88$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 121 | 36.4%44 W · 77 L | +5.9wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff26…b20dbacked Montenegro | 50c | 26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f6…3684backed Sweden | 50c | 26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd95b…188ebacked Sweden | 55c | 23.07$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x566f…8f86backed Sweden | 53c | 22.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Euroleague and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.