MLB · resolved market
Seattle Mariners vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8024d170980074a8dced9cb742755a53a780548d9dfd9ab187a4f05e031eb4f7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,728
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,755
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,728 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 56c | 2,131$1,196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$935.32 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 41c | 1,360$558 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$557.6 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9e…5a9ebacked Under | 58c | 603.45$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 342 | 55.3%189 W · 153 L | +10.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Under | 57c | 292$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.44 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Under | 53c | 256.33$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.89 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Under | 41c | 238.88$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.94 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 42c | 219$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.02 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Under | 68c | 145.63$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.03 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 56c | 140.6$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.32 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 43c | 127.93$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.92 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Over | 42c | 106$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.48 | 546 | 42.5%232 W · 314 L | +7.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 24c | 95$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.65 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Under | 57c | 73.54$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.92 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 43c | 44.05$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.11 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…5124backed Under | 57c | 43.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 412 | 49.5%204 W · 208 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 68c | 34$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.16 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 55c | 30.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.11 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50f7…53d5backed Under | 58c | 20.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3da8…be26backed Under | 56c | 18.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 223 | 52.5%117 W · 106 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Seattle Mariners vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5this page
- Seattle Mariners vs. Milwaukee BrewersMilwaukee Brewers won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Milwaukee Brewers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 6.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Seattle Mariners vs. Milwaukee BrewersYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.