MLB · resolved market
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbd4e4a75651bfce8955510e2882b86cb7d7cb63ee21080794d1813c217fb9f4c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Milwaukee Brewersof Milwaukee Brewers, Seattle Mariners
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,551
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,723
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,551 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc6b1…78fdbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 42c | 8,317$3,493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,823.86 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Seattle Mariners | 58c | 8,303$4,816 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,815.79 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x927c…6633backed Milwaukee Brewers | 56c | 6,125$3,430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,695 | 73 | 52.1%38 W · 35 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Seattle Mariners | 44c | 3,216$1,415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,415.16 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Seattle Mariners | 44c | 1,975$869 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$869 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Seattle Mariners | 59c | 1,390$814 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$814.07 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed Milwaukee Brewers | 43c | 1,161$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$662.27 | 866 | 53%459 W · 407 L | +16.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac65…cfe6backed Seattle Mariners | 61c | 705.81$429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429 | 137 | 59.1%81 W · 56 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Seattle Mariners | 57c | 534.21$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.04 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Seattle Mariners | 58c | 513.85$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.26 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 58c | 513.48$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.65 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Seattle Mariners | 42c | 409.98$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.96 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Milwaukee Brewers | 43c | 386.83$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.31 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28e8…6080backed Milwaukee Brewers | 39c | 352.57$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.07 | 473 | 50.7%240 W · 233 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Seattle Mariners | 57c | 318.99$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.82 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Seattle Mariners | 55c | 305$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.8 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c1e…befebacked Milwaukee Brewers | 42c | 238.1$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.1 | 285 | 53%151 W · 134 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c5b…ec01backed Milwaukee Brewers | 41c | 234.37$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.28 | 220 | 50.5%111 W · 109 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Milwaukee Brewers | 39c | 174$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.14 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Seattle Mariners | 53c | 168$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.28 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Milwaukee Brewers | 40c | 137.52$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.51 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe66f…0f3ebacked Milwaukee Brewers | 41c | 124$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.16 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…056fbacked Seattle Mariners | 59c | 124$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.16 | 274 | 48.2%132 W · 142 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49c5…3de7backed Seattle Mariners | 59c | 118.75$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.8 | 341 | 49.3%168 W · 173 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 42c | 117.98$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.59 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Milwaukee Brewers | 42c | 109.81$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.69 | 2,021 | 39.5%798 W · 1,223 L | -25.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Milwaukee Brewers | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3da8…be26backed Seattle Mariners | 59c | 90$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.1 | 223 | 52.5%117 W · 106 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2889…edcfbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 42c | 80$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.4 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Seattle Mariners | 58c | 78$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.24 | 877 | 50.4%442 W · 435 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22a7…ca43backed Seattle Mariners | 47c | 74.47$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -4.2wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa188…62eabacked Milwaukee Brewers | 42c | 70.93$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.93 | 242 | 48.8%118 W · 124 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Milwaukee Brewers | 41c | 67.89$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.06 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Seattle Mariners | 46c | 66.97$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.81 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…8ed9backed Seattle Mariners | 58c | 60.62$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.16 | 326 | 52.5%171 W · 155 L | +15.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…5124backed Milwaukee Brewers | 42c | 48.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.91 | 412 | 49.5%204 W · 208 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x641d…eeedbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 42c | 43.43$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.19 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3f…4333backed Seattle Mariners | 58c | 42.88$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.87 | 562 | 53.2%299 W · 263 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18ca…22c9backed Milwaukee Brewers | 40c | 33.75$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.25 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 66c | 31.72$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Seattle Mariners | 58c | 23.81$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 77c | 22.22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.19 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)this page
- Seattle Mariners vs. Milwaukee BrewersMilwaukee Brewers won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Milwaukee Brewers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 6.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Seattle Mariners vs. Milwaukee BrewersYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.