Tennis · resolved market
Bucharest Open: Elmer Moeller vs Mariano Navone
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x804d028faae5bc5790d7b77e5962ee4464b21c95dcff943408049ab11ce950dd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Mariano Navoneof Elmer Moeller, Mariano Navone
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $89,297
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $118,357
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $89,297 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Elmer Moeller | 12c | 10,738$1,283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,283.41 | 8,828 | 36.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L | -193.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Elmer Moeller | 6c | 9,956$571 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$571.15 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Elmer Moeller | 4c | 7,100$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.05 | 1,106 | 41%454 W · 652 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d4…8b32backed Elmer Moeller | 4c | 5,292$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.53 | 1,206 | 8%96 W · 1,110 L | +17.2wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | +80.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Elmer Moeller | 13c | 2,693$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.89 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Elmer Moeller | 22c | 2,017$446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$446.33 | 2,462 | 38.5%948 W · 1,514 L | +93.1wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x627f…06dcbacked Elmer Moeller | 11c | 1,994$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.55 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…5878backed Elmer Moeller | 23c | 1,740$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.19 | 277 | 33.6%93 W · 184 L | +9.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Elmer Moeller | 21c | 1,466$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.05 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a84…e271backed Mariano Navone | 77c | 1,321$1,022 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.77 | 139 | 59%82 W · 57 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…b2aebacked Elmer Moeller | 5c | 1,311$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.04 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x83a8…d529backed Mariano Navone | 78c | 1,019$795 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.26 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.20per pick | 62cpaid | +71.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9ed9…9949backed Mariano Navone | 78c | 949.37$741 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.86 | 465 | 53.8%250 W · 215 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e52…9fa4backed Mariano Navone | 77c | 817.56$630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.04 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd8c…f75abacked Mariano Navone | 79c | 624.94$494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.24 | 327 | 63.9%209 W · 118 L | +15.6wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa163…934dbacked Elmer Moeller | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 307 | 15.6%48 W · 259 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf2d…e660backed Elmer Moeller | 8c | 437.56$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.96 | 107 | 28%30 W · 77 L | -10.1wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Elmer Moeller | 13c | 342.78$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.24 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Elmer Moeller | 21c | 309.59$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.01 | 1,809 | 43.8%793 W · 1,016 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Elmer Moeller | 13c | 286.63$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.97 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7bf…b02dbacked Mariano Navone | 79c | 250.04$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.57 | 591 | 65.3%386 W · 205 L | -16.9wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Elmer Moeller | 6c | 247.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 1,354 | 43.9%595 W · 759 L | -62.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Elmer Moeller | 16c | 200.73$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.39 | 6,786 | 48.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L | +56.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x759c…05e2backed Mariano Navone | 78c | 189.77$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.75 | 196 | 49%96 W · 100 L | -15.3wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x700a…58a5backed Elmer Moeller | 22c | 188.73$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.52 | 180 | 20.6%37 W · 143 L | -14.0wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcfaf…064abacked Elmer Moeller | 12c | 181.11$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.73 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe901…3139backed Elmer Moeller | 10c | 172.05$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.72 | 238 | 32.4%77 W · 161 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -24%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64e8…7819backed Elmer Moeller | 23c | 150$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 1,882 | 35.5%669 W · 1,213 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10ff…ff77backed Mariano Navone | 74c | 135.98$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.36 | 967 | 55.3%535 W · 432 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc629…5e51backed Mariano Navone | 77c | 128.08$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.46 | 573 | 49.6%284 W · 289 L | -2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe10f…c59fbacked Mariano Navone | 77c | 127.51$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.87 | 104 | 74%77 W · 27 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x012d…9db6backed Mariano Navone | 78c | 126.51$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.83 | 849 | 68.4%581 W · 268 L | +25.9wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d8c…35b0backed Mariano Navone | 78c | 126.51$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.83 | 224 | 65.2%146 W · 78 L | +9.3wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68af…ca81backed Elmer Moeller | 22c | 96.71$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.28 | 217 | 20.3%44 W · 173 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa428…40c6backed Mariano Navone | 78c | 94.56$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.62 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 68cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9735…b03bbacked Elmer Moeller | 22c | 90.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x069b…e8afbacked Elmer Moeller | 22c | 86.65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.06 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Elmer Moeller | 17c | 77.28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 3,270 | 13.8%450 W · 2,820 L | -549.1wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x21d6…14e5backed Mariano Navone | 78c | 75.91$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.7 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…f9d1backed Mariano Navone | 78c | 70$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 299 | 47.5%142 W · 157 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb17…32b2backed Elmer Moeller | 18c | 66.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 208 | 36.5%76 W · 132 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc155…e36bbacked Mariano Navone | 77c | 63.36$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.57 | 231 | 59.3%137 W · 94 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05b4…9152backed Mariano Navone | 79c | 62.49$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.12 | 61 | 70.5%43 W · 18 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe33d…9512backed Elmer Moeller | 23c | 46.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c1c…b4f1backed Mariano Navone | 75c | 39.4$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 181 | 66.9%121 W · 60 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a73…c2e5backed Mariano Navone | 78c | 37.94$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.35 | 300 | 53.3%160 W · 140 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd038…8f51backed Mariano Navone | 79c | 36.62$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.69 | 4,288 | 40.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L | -139.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x855f…4954backed Mariano Navone | 77c | 32.21$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.41 | 105 | 70.5%74 W · 31 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd675…30d9backed Mariano Navone | 76c | 25.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.07 | 75 | 62.7%47 W · 28 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb347…def1backed Mariano Navone | 77c | 25.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.89 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a57…913fbacked Mariano Navone | 77c | 19.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 123 | 61.8%76 W · 47 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x267b…ff67backed Mariano Navone | 78c | 13.92$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.06 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +2.5wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xed8d…541dbacked Mariano Navone | 78c | 13.92$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.06 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.25per pick | 62cpaid | +43%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.